Global climate resilience faces a test as Super El Nino nears its peak

A series of extreme weather events around the world has drawn widespread attention in recent days. Torrential rain in north and central Chile has set new weather records in a century, while the Atacama Desert, one of the driest places on Earth, has seen persistent rainfall, transforming its landscape into a carpet of flowers.

Meanwhile, transboundary haze continues to spread across Southeast Asia, prompting Indonesia, Myanmar, and the Philippines to issue alerts over electricity supplies and public health. In Papua New Guinea, drought has led to the declaration of a humanitarian emergency.

Behind these unusual weather events lies a common cause. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects the current super El Nino to peak by the end of this year, potentially reaching unprecedented intensity since systematic climate monitoring began.

The current El Nino is exceptionally intense, far exceeding normal levels. El Nino, a natural climate phenomenon driven by periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, typically occurs every two to seven years.

But the ongoing eastern Pacific-type El Nino event, characterized by unusually warm waters concentrated in the eastern equatorial Pacific, is developing faster and is expected to reach a higher peak than any of the three previous super El Nino events.

According to China's National Climate Center, sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific have already exceeded 3 degrees Celsius. The current El Nino is forecast to reach a sea surface temperature anomaly of 3.2 to 3.5 degrees Celsius at its peak, surpassing the previous record of 2.8 degrees Celsius.

Meanwhile, global warming is adding to the pressure. Global average daily sea surface temperatures reached a record high in August. The UK Met Office predicts that next year is likely to be the warmest on record. The combined effects are likely to make extreme weather events more frequent and more severe.

The record-breaking super El Nino poses a sweeping test of global resilience to climate impacts. As its effects ripple across the world, countries with weaker climate adaptation capacities are likely to bear heavier costs.

Food security is among the areas most immediately affected. Shifts in rain belts could bring drought and sharp declines in agricultural output to rain-fed farming regions in southern Africa, Central America, and other parts of the world. The World Food Programme estimates that a strong El Nino could leave nearly 49 million more people facing severe food insecurity.

The energy system also faces pressure from supply and demand. Higher temperatures drive up electricity consumption, while drought reduces hydropower generation. For many countries, this creates a difficult situation in which electricity demand peaks just as power generation declines.

Public health faces growing threats as well. Smoke from forest fires in Indonesia can travel across borders, carrying fine particulate matter that harms respiratory and cardiovascular health. Academic research estimates that fires and haze during the 2015 El Nino event caused around 100,000 excess deaths. The lessons of the past remain fresh.

There is now broad global consensus on how El Nino is developing and how far its impacts may reach. This is a crucial time to plan ahead and prepare for disasters.

During the El Nino event in 2023-2024, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) carried out anticipatory actions in 24 countries, reaching approximately 1.7 million people. The experience showed that early intervention can help countries significantly reduce their losses.

However, the lack of concrete action in global climate governance remains striking. Developed countries have fallen well behind on their pledge to provide $100 billion in climate finance annually. Technology transfer to developing countries remains constrained by numerous barriers. Many countries vulnerable to climate change are left watching as warnings of impending hazards become disasters.

At its core, El Nino is a natural climate cycle. But global warming is amplifying its destructive impacts, laying bare inequalities in global climate governance.

Climate risks do not stop at national borders, and no country should sit on the sidelines in addressing challenges. In the face of the super El Nino, we must seize the window for action following early warnings and take concrete measures, such as adjusting agricultural supplies, reinforcing river embankments and ensuring reliable energy supplies.

We must uphold multilateralism and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, while stepping up efforts to both mitigate climate change and adapt to its impacts. Only by translating commitments into action and global consensus into tangible benefits for all can we minimize the impact of the El Nino event and safeguard our shared planet.

(Li Yan is a researcher at the Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University.)