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Commentary: rating agencies’ reduction of China's rating outlook was biased

By Ji Jing (People's Daily Online)    17:04, April 14, 2016

Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investor Service, two internationally famous credit rating agencies, recently downgraded the outlook of the Chinese government’s credit rating from "stable" to "negative" in their latest report.

They also lowered the outlooks and ratings of the governments of Hong Kong and Macao, as well as a handful of other state-owned enterprises and financial institution bonds.

Although the market turned a blind eye to this change, talk about China’s economic prospects has been prevalent. Some people are now worried about the sustainability of the Chinese economy, while some blame the spillover effect of China, and others are lamenting that reform is lagging.

According to their reports, both agencies cited a relatively high ratio of debt and investment in the GDP as reasons for the downgrade, but neglected to acknowledge the improved momentum of the Chinese economy. The conclusions of these agencies are therefore clearly biased.

China's economic aggregate has exceeded $10 trillion, and its annual increment is equal to the economic aggregate of a medium-sized developed country in Europe. An economy of such a large size cannot be judged by just a few data points; rather, it needs a holistic and objective analysis. China’s economy will inevitably encounter some roadblocks, but there is no need to worry about it as long as the problems are addressed in a timely manner after they emerge.

First of all, China's economy is still growing at a relatively high speed. Even when the growth of the world economy hit a low of 3.1 percent in 2015, China maintained a medium-to-high growth rate of 6.9 percent.

In the latest version of the World Economic Outlook report, the IMF lowered the expected growth of the world economy by 0.2 percent to 3.2 percent. It also dropped the forecast on most major economies. The projected growth of the U.S. was downgraded to 2.4 percent, and those of the Eurozone countries and Japan were predicted to be 1.5 percent and 0.5 percent respectively. The expected growth of China's economy, on the other hand, was upgraded to 6.5 percent from 6.3 percent.

At the same time, in 2015, consumption contributed 66.4 percent to China's economic growth. In the same year, the service sector accounted for 50.5 percent of the GDP, and the added value of high-tech industries increased by 10.2 percent.

It is also impressive that the trade volume on Taobao, a well-known e-commerce platform in China, hit a record high of almost 100 billion yuan ($15.4 billion) on Nov. 11 of last year, a national online shopping holiday.

China’s online sales grew 33 percent overall in 2015, reflecting the vigorous growth of e-commerce. Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba has recently overtaken Walmart as the largest retailer in the world, which is an accomplishment that Amazon has been chasing unsuccessfully for years.

In addition, China has set a clear direction for its economy. Setting its "two cententary goals," the country is committed to the Chinese dream of national rejuvenation.

China also has better strategic planning than other countries. Currently, China is proactively implementing the 13th Five-Year Plan, promoting supply-side reform, advancing the Belt and Road initiative and boosting international cooperation. All these long-term plans will ensure the steady progress of the Chinese economy.

Foreign countries viewing China from afar should not give much weight to the small and temporary problems that will inevitably emerge during China’s economic development, nor should those countries exaggerate them. In the future, as long as China’s economy stays on the course that has already been set, maintaining its current power and speed, it will surely have an excellent outlook.

(The author is an observer of international affairs.) 

(For the latest China news, Please follow People's Daily on Twitter and Facebook)(Editor:Hongyu,Wu Chengliang)

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