Since media outlets revealed some concrete rules of the draft law that examines granting votes to residents for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region's chief executive election in 2017 and its Legislative Council in 2016, Hong Kong's pan-democrats have started to raise objections. The draft lists three requirements for the chief executive election. The nominating committee should be composed of members from four major sectors; they will pick two or up to three candidates; and aspirants for the election will need support from half of the nominating committee to become a candidate.
Some analysts suggest that a 50-percent nomination threshold has basically excluded pan-democrats from running in the election because the majority working for the nomination committee endorse the policy of "one country, two systems" and cooperation with the central government. A certain number of extremists threatened that the Occupy Central movement will inevitably take place and that they will soon organize students to boycott classes.
Nevertheless, the clamor will not work effectively. Hong Kong media pointed out that Beijing changed its mentality and would not worry about the pan-democratic camp making trouble. This is somewhat incorrect analysis but a fact is that the Chinese mainland has made full psychological preparation for the aggravation of the rift over Hong Kong's political reform.
We are convinced that Hong Kong's opposition groups can in no way win this conflict. They may remain immersed in the confrontation against law and alienate themselves from mainstream Hong Kong society, or reflect their behavior in the past and redesign their strategies as the opposition camp.
We hope that rationality will finally prevail among them. Those opposing the central government can't serve as Hong Kong SAR's chief executive, which is out of the interests of both Hong Kong people and the country as large. Chinese society has drawn a judgment that it is detrimental to Hong Kong to allow an anti-Beijing person to lead the city.
As long as these extreme pan-democrats accept the policy of "one country, two systems" and their loyalty for the "one country" and love for both Hong Kong and China gain the wide trust of society, there is a possibility that one of them will become the chief executive.
The more the contention surrounding Hong Kong's political reform evolves into the confrontation between different forces, the less hope the pan-democratic camp has. The more they count on support from Washington and London, the more absolutely they will fail. Now there occurs a view that the communication between opposition groups and the central government is completely meaningless, which will definitely cause loss for the former.
The pan-democratic camp should concern themselves more about how to gain support from Hong Kong's majority, which will be more conducive to their political future, than confronting Beijing with extreme proposals.