SEOUL, Nov. 26 -- Possibilities are growing for Bank of Korea (BOK), South Korea's central bank, to cut its record-low policy rate further as consumer confidence remained sour amid mounting external uncertainties, such as the weakening of the Japanese yen.
Confidence among South Korean consumers fell to the lowest in 14 months despite monetary and fiscal stimulus measures. Composite consumer sentiment index (CCSI) slid to 103 in November, the lowest since September 2013, BOK data showed Wednesday.
It was lower than 105 tallied in May when private consumption worsened sharply after the April ferry disaster that killed more than 300 passengers, mostly high school students, on board the ill- fated ferry Sewol. The country was seized with deep grief, with consumers refraining from leisure and entertainment.
To boost sentiment of economic agents, including companies and consumers, the government announced a fiscal stimulus package in July. The BOK lowered its benchmark interest rate in August and October to a record low of 2 percent.
Despite the stimulus measures, consumer confidence weakened further, putting pressures on the BOK to cut rates further. The state-run Korea Development Institute (KDI) said in a report Tuesday that the central bank has a room for further rate cuts given that inflation stays at a record-low level.
The report said the country's real interest rate, adjusted for inflation, is even higher than the one during the 2008 global financial crisis, urging the BOK to cut rates further to prevent the Japanese-style deflation from happening in South Korea.
Consumer prices rose 1.2 percent in October from a year earlier, staying far below the BOK's inflation target band of 2.5-3.5 percent. Inflation expectations among consumers were unchanged at 2.7 percent in November, marking the lowest since the BOK began compiling the data in February 2002.
The Japanese currency's weakness to the U.S. dollar is increasing pressure on the BOK to prevent the weak yen from mauling competitiveness of South Korean exporters by cutting rates and inducing the local currency to fall to the dollar. After the Bank of Japan's surprise stimulus expansion last month, the yen fell further and stayed at a seven-year low to the dollar.
South Korean and Japanese companies are rivaling in many industries in overseas markets. According to the BOK report Wednesday, local carmakers and machinery companies were especially hit hard by the weak yen. Japanese automakers allegedly agreed with auto parts contractors on price cuts to reduce production costs.
Growing concerns over South Korean exports amid the weak yen drove global investment banks to lower growth outlook for the economy. The Paris-based BNP Paribas cut its 2015 outlook for South Korea's GDP expansion to 3 percent, forecasting that Japan's monetary easing would increase the relative value of the won versus the yen and dent competitive edge of South Korean exporters.
Growth outlooks by HSBC and Moody's were also downgraded to 3.1 percent, staying far below the South Korean government's outlook at 4 percent and the BOK's figure at 3.9 percent.
Rate cuts in China and the expected monetary easing in Europe also added pressures on the BOK. Last week, the People's Bank of China cut the benchmark one-year deposit and lending rates for the first time in 28 months, and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi hinted at expanding its asset-buying program to tackle lower inflation.
Opposing views remained over the BOK's further rate cut as China's monetary easing would stimulate the world's second-largest economy, or the No. 1 trading partner of South Korea. Opponents said Europe's possible expansion in monetary stimulus would bolster the global economy and help boost South Korea's exports.
South Korea's household debts exceeded 1,000 trillion won ( almost 1 trillion U.S. dollars), rising 2.1 percent in the past three months. The BOK's further rate cut would increase the already massive household debts.
The expected rate increase by the U.S. Federal Reserve possibly in mid- or late-2015 raised worries about foreign capital exodus from South Korea. If the Fed's rate hike begins next year, foreign capital may abruptly flow out of South Korea to seek high-yield assets away from the country with a record-low policy rate.
Day|Week|Month