Populism Abe's first concern as Japanese PM

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Populism Abe's first concern as Japanese PM

By Raymond Lee (Global Times) 08:58, August 27, 2013

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Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic policies have proved popular in Japan, but recent controversies over the Yasukuni Shrine have raised the specter of Japanese nationalism once more.

When Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won an overwhelming victory in the upper-house elections in late July, it had a great symbolic meaning.

It not only marked Abe taking actual control of Japan's parliament, meaning that once more a party controlled both the executive and legislative branches, but also marked the end of Japan's "twisted Diet" of six years.

As "Abenomics" successfully goes, Abe will launch a new package of comprehensive reforms covering politics, military and constitution.

People, however, are more divided about the follow-up policy Abe might take. Some argue that Abe will put economic reform aside and instead focus on amending Article 9 of the Peace Constitution, laying the foundation for military expansion. Others say that these predictions are entirely groundless since there is no evidence that Abe will suddenly abandon his ambitious economic plans.

As Japan's prime minister, Abe is more a pragmatist than a nationalist. It is Japan's national interest rather than impetuous nationalism that conducts Abe's policy.

Today, Abe faces a serious international environment in East Asia, especially the prolonged deflation and the resulting economic stagnation for even 15 years.

If Abe's first term in office had something common with then US president George H.W. Bush's failure in 1992, then Abe now is more like former US president Bill Clinton grasping the fundamental problem, "Abenomics," which is gradually taking effect.

What is more, success gives Abe's LDP full control of the parliament, just as Clinton had in 1992. Unlike in his first term, Abe focuses on the troubled economy this time.

Abe now appears to have grasped the key points: introducing a 10.3 trillion yen ($116 billion) fiscal stimulus, inflation targeting, and structural reform, which basically proves to be successful.

The June strategy, however, has met with disappointment: The Nikkei stock market fell to a two-month low. The "third arrow" of his policy, structural reform, is also full of uncertainty. In addition, some crisis might suddenly interrupt "Abenomics."

There is also no reason that Abe will now abandon his "Abenomics" in favor of military assertiveness in order to win back market confidence and voters.

The vast majority of the Japanese have now reached a consensus on the constitutional amendment.

Since 2004, public support for revising the constitution has been more than 50 percent. In an interview earlier this year, Abe said he would like to see the constitution amended, and his party has already published a draft proposal for the amendment of the constitution, including Article 9."

When asked about the attitude of the vast majority of Japanese, Abe made it clear that, in general, more than 50 percent of Japanese nationals supported the idea of changing the constitution while less than 50 percent supported the amendment of Article 9.

But a poll from Asahi Shimbun indicated almost 54 percent of Japan's voters opposed amending the constitution. Actually, it is changes to Article 9 rather than the constitution that the majority of Japanese still oppose.

Abe's midterm election victory, by following public needs is redolent of Japan's "1955 system," which laid the foundation for the LDP's leading status for almost 30 years after WWII. At present, the political success of the LDP suggests that a new order is not so far away.