News Analysis: Release of Mubarak unlikely to change Egypt's political scene

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CAIRO, Aug. 21 -- Former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will be freed on Thursday, as his lawyer said, but he will be placed under house arrest to avoid more perplexity in the country hit by turmoil since the ouster of his successor Mohamed Morsi on July 3.

Mubarak will leave the jail after settling his last corruption case of Ahram institution, in which he was charged along with his two sons with misusing power and accepting gifts from governmental institutions via his information minister.

Mubarak, 86 years old, governed Egypt for 30 years until he was overthrown during the uprisings that swept the Arab country in early 2011. He will still be banned from traveling abroad as he faces a retrial on charges of involvement in the killing of protesters during the 2011 unrest that eventually toppled him. The next hearing is slated for Saturday.

For his old age and the judicial procedures, Mubarak's release won't change the political situation in Egypt, said Gamal Zahran, chief of the political science department at Port Said University.

His release won't complicate the political scene which gives the priority for handling stalemate in relations with the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and the religious parties after toppling their president and detained their leaders, Zahran told Xinhua.

The people don't care currently about Mubarak's news, Zahran said, "his release will add to the sarcastic situation in Egypt."

The old man's release will send "negative messages for the society," as Mubarak was involved in misusing his powers in his last corruption case, Zahran said.

He called for activating the transitional justice and the revolutionary courts, to hold Mubarak and his remnants accountable for corruption, as incomplete information over their charges helped in acquitting most of them.

Though Mubarak has no political future, people are confused over the release of the man charged of killing the protesters, among others.

While Mubarak may leave Tora prison soon, leading MB members are detained in the same prison complex.

Egyptian authorities on Wednesday arrested hardliner Islamist preacher Safwat Hegazi and MB spokesman Morad Mohamed Ali, while they were trying to flee to Libya and Rome, respectively. Two days ago, the MB's top leader Mohamed Badie was arrested, and was on Tuesday ordered 15 days in custody over charges of killing protesters.

Nabil Zaki, a political analyst, upheld that the "Mubarak's regime was a page in Egypt's history, and its influence went long."

He expected that Mubarak will be paroled in all cases due to his old age, and it won't take a long time for the people to accept it.

Anger against Mubarak decreased obviously after the citizens compared his bad rule with the MB's worse regime, Zaki told Xinhua.

The Islamists' poor performance in one year equals what Mubarak's regime did in 30 years of his rule, he noted.

Members of Mubarak's ruling party stayed at home, and didn't burn the country when their party dissolved, like what the Islamists did after the army ousted their leader, he added.

The Egyptians have to learn respecting the law and the judicial verdicts if they want to live in a democratic country governed by the law, Zaki said.

By contrast, Samir Ghatas, chief of Cairo-based Maqdes Center for Political Studies, said the release of Mubarak would stir more political unrest in the country.

Though his release is legal but the time is very critical as the Egyptian authorities in which most of them belonged to Mubarak regime, are detaining the MB members, he pointed out.

The MB will take to the street against Defense Minister Abdel Fattah Sisi, who ousted their legitimate president and released Mubarak, to pave the way for Mubarak remnants to hold power again, and to eradicate any chance before the Islamists to take power.

The situation in Egypt is very complicated and Mubrak's release,although not acquitted, will add perplexity to the scene, Ghatas added.

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