'Auto era' poses tough challenges

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Wednesday, March 17, 2004

'Auto era' poses tough challenges

An "auto era" to China means diminishing land resources, worsening environmental pollution, energy shortages and terrible traffic congestion, which China has to face and solve.

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An "auto era" to China means diminishing land resources, worsening environmental pollution, energy shortages and terrible traffic congestion, which China has to face and solve.

More arable land has given way to roads and parking lot construction to ease transportation bottlenecks and accommodate a rapidly increasing number of motor vehicles.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Communications, China's expressways reached 29,800 kilometers by the end of last year, second only to the United States. But the truth behind this achievement means that when one kilometer of highway is constructed, 1,000 tons of bitumen, 400 tons of cement and steel, and a large amount of sandstone will be paved on the farmland.

Rising petroleum consumption of motor vehicles, making up one-third of the country's total petroleum consumption, has also caused concerns.

Fuel demands of autos nationwide, predicted the State Council'sDevelopment and Research Center (DRC), will reach 138 million tons by 2010 and 256 million tons by 2020, accounting for 43 percent and 57 percent respectively of expected total petroleum use.

However, during the same period, China's petroleum production will stand at most 200 million tons, cautioned officials of the Ministry of Land Resources (MLR), which means the country will rely more on foreign oil imports.

"Petroleum is not only for driving, it is a basic production material of the modern industrial society," said Zhang Dawei, director of MLR's strategic research center. "How can we sacrificebasic needs for food, clothing and shelter for transportation only?"

But even the ever-rising petroleum prices cannot curb automakers and customers' demands as the production and sales market expanded at a rate of 50 percent for the past two years andthe trend is expected to last for several years to come.

"We've already sensed the restraint of limited natural resources," said Lu Zhiqiang, DRC's deputy director.

Large cities like Beijing, Shanghai and southern Guangzhou may have a deeper feeling about the affection of the auto industry, since apart from taking away space and oil resources, auto emission has become a notorious source of pollutants like carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon.

A World Bank report said that China's auto-related pollution isdeteriorating. In the past 30 years, the incidence of TB (pulmonary tuberculosis) has doubled due to urban smog mainly contributed by automotive emissions.

Worse still, the State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA) predicted that gas emissions of motor vehicles would account for 79 percent of urban air pollution in the country by 2005.

Nevertheless, traffic jams are the problem that causes most complaints from city dwellers who often face long lines of cars ontheir way home or work.

Beijing, the first city in the country to have two million vehicles, a figure it reached last year, is on top of the list of gridlock-hit areas.

Expecting to have 3.5 million cars at the current rate by 2008,just in time for the Summer Olympics, the city has been strugglingsince last year with traffic chaos linked to a low standard of driving, poor road design and continuing roadworks.

Traffic congestion has cost people and businesses in the city ahuge amount of time and "about six billion yuan worth of direct losses a year" according to economist Mao Yushi.

Even Beijing's newly-elected mayor Wang Qishan said traffic washis biggest headache.

The government, said experts, should quickly adapt itself to facing the challenges brought by China's auto boom.

"It should shift its regulation focus from the industry itself to the society as a whole", said Lu Zhiqiang, adding that only coordinated development between the two can help China avoid unnecessary cost.

It is only a question of time before China leaves the bicycle era for the auto age, said Chen Qingtai, also DRC's deputy-director.

But the country should, he urged, be well-prepared for a flood of cars in the next 10 or 20 years.

"Otherwise, we'll be at a loss when the time comes."

Source: Xinhua

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