Forecast: HK economy to grow at 6.7 percent in 2004

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Tuesday, January 13, 2004

Forecast: HK economy to grow at 6.7 percent in 2004

A latest macroeconomics forecast indicated that the Hong Kong's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was estimated to grow by 3.3 percent in 2003 with a prospective 6.7 percent in 2004.

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A latest macroeconomics forecast indicated that the Hong Kong's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was estimated to grow by 3.3 percent in 2003 with a prospective 6.7 percent in 2004.

According to the economic forecast commissioned by the Better Hong Kong Foundation and managed by the Center for Economic Development of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, theHong Kong economy has been picking up since late 2003 and the market sentiments became positive with the central government's recent economic measures towards Hong Kong.

The Better Hong Kong Foundation's Chief Executive George Yuan said at a press conference on Tuesday, "The implementation of the Chinese Mainland/Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement(CEPA) in January, 2004, had made available opportunities for local and foreign businesses operating in Hong Kong."

He said that similarly, many Chinese mainland companies can nowuse Hong Kong as a business platform to have greater interface with international business community. Hence, more trade deals areexpected.

Besides, Yuan said, the individual travel scheme has not only boosted the tourist statistics but also acted as a major market force to revive consumer spending and retail trade.

Director of the Center for Economic Development, Professor Francis Lui noted, "There are clear signs that Hong Kong's economyis picking up. According to our forecast, we expect that the real GDP growth for 2004 is revised upwards to 6.7 percent, from a 5.3 percent to 5.8 percent range in our earlier study in last October."

He predicted that the export growth for 2004 is 10.4 percent. However, he believed that though the unemployment has fallen back to the pre-SARS level, the process could slow down.

The forecast for the average unemployment rate of 2004 remains at the level of 7 percent.

Talking about local and foreign investment, Yuan said that withthe support of the central government and efforts of the Hong KongSpecial Administrative Region government in restoring and improving market sentiment in Hong Kong, more local and international investments would be expected in 2004.

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