Could Iraq issue lead to Bush's political demise?

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Saturday, December 20, 2003

Could Iraq issue lead to Bush's political demise?

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United States President George W. Bush's brief and surprise visit to US troops at Baghdad International Airport on Thanksgiving Day was widely believed hereto be a "shock and awe" public relations blitz conducted by the White House.

Bush could win a political reprieve at the time when Americans are showing increasing skepticism about US occupation of Iraq, and strategies for ending it. But he has also made an unprecedented visual connection with the Iraqi landscape, analysts said.

Because of the connection, whenever there is a story about another US casualty in Iraq, people in the back of their mind will begin to say "Bush" instead of "America."

Such a linkage has increased Bush's political stakes in Iraq --he can either ride the popularity arising out of a successful mission in Iraq into a second term as US president, or find the Iraq war his political failure if Iraq remains "a shooting gallery" with a growing list of US casualties when Americans go to ballots next year.

More than seven months have passed since President Bush landed on an aircraft carrier to declare the end of major combat operations in Iraq on May 1.

Much to US war planners' dismay, however, the situation in Iraq has deteriorated to a level that poses a serious challenge to the United States in political, military and diplomatic fronts. It is causing concerns that Iraq could become another Vietnam or quagmire, analysts say.

A top-secret report by the Central Intelligence Agency dated Nov. 10 painted a bleak political scenario facing US occupation authority and forces in Iraq.

The report, which had been explicitly endorsed by US top civilian administrator in Iraq Paul Bremer, said that the situation in Iraq is approaching a crucial turning point, with ordinary Iraqis losing faith in American-led occupation forces and in the US hand-picked Iraqi Governing Council, according to US press reports.

As a result, the Iraqis are increasingly willing to offer support for the military resistance against the United States and its allied forces.

US officials disclosed that a classified opinion poll conducted by the State Department's intelligence branch found that a majority of Iraqis now regard American troops as occupiers rather than liberators.

Some US analysts listed the failure to prevent US forces from becoming occupiers in the eyes of Iraqis and Arabs as the major mistake made by the Bush administration in planning the war.

On the military front, the attacks on US-led coalition forces have evolved from what the US military had dismissed as "pocket resistance" to a classic guerrilla war over the past seven months.

For example, about 80 US soldiers died in hostile actions in November alone, more than any month since the war began in March, showed figures released by the Pentagon.

About half of the deaths resulted from the downing of four military helicopters, in which 39 soldiers were killed. At one point during the month, US military officials reported that the number of guerrilla attacks was averaging more than 40 a day.

The surge has reflected an increase in the effectiveness and frequency of guerrilla attacks, analysts said.

John Abizaid, commander of the US Central Command, told reporters last month that the US-led occupation faced no more than5,000 guerrilla fighters, but they were increasingly well organized and well financed, and were gradually expanding their attacks to the previously calm north and south.

Although the US forces have intensified their attacks on guerrillas since the middle of November, and even captured ousted Iraqi President Saddam Hussein on Dec. 13, it is believed that the attacks against US-led troops will not die out any time soon.

"The bitter insurgency that US forces have faced in Saddam Hussein's home region will not cease with his arrest, as a car bombing yesterday quickly demonstrated," The Washington Post said in an editorial dated on Dec. 15. It was referring to the bombing of a hotel in Baghdad on Dec. 14 which took place as President Bush delivered a TV speech on Saddam's capture.

"Many of those who fight the American-sponsored provisional authority do so for reasons that extend well beyond loyalty to Saddam Hussein," the influential newspaper added.

The same newspaper also highlighted US diplomatic isolation on the Iraq issue in a Nov. 4 editorial entitled " A Lonely Fight."

The article said that the United States "faces the latest surge of violence on the ground (in Iraq) from a position that is more isolated than ever."

"No fresh foreign troops are on their way to help fight the Iraqi insurgents and foreign terrorists who have lately redoubled their attacks," it said, adding that international bodies such as the United Nations and the International Red Cross were either reducing their operations in Iraq or pulling out from the country.

As a result of the isolation, the editorial said, it will now fall almost exclusively to US soldiers to fight the insurgents in Iraq, and the United States will have to pay most of the cost of humanitarian relief and reconstruction in the coming years.

Recent opinion polls showed that President Bush, who enjoyed a soaring support at home in the immediate aftermath of the downfall of Saddam's regime, is facing an increasingly skeptical American public over whether the United States should have gone into war with Iraq, and whether the current strategy would work.

Before Saddam's capture, Bush's poll ratings had dwindled to a level around or even below the 50 percent mark, casting a shadow over the prospect of his re-election next year.

The latest poll, conducted by ABC television network and The Washington Post after the announcement of Saddam's capture, showed that 58 percent of respondents expressed confidence in Bush's way to manage the Iraq issue, a 10 percent hike compared with 48 percent one month ago. But 90 percent of the respondents said serious challenges remain in Iraq.

Election strategists said that Saddam's arrest, which came almost a year before the US election, would give Bush a political boost in the short term but may prove to have only a transitory impact on his re-election prospects.

Being a wartime president, Bush has a chance to get re-elected as the economy shows a robust rebound and the Democrats are in disarray, according to the strategists.

Given the challenges facing US forces in Iraq and the unpredictability of the process of stabilizing Iraq, however, what will happen in the oil-rich country in the period leading up to next November remains a major factor which, if things go wrong, could complicate or even dampen Bush's prospect for reelection, they said.

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