Don't overplay tricks: commentary

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Friday, November 28, 2003

Don't overplay tricks: commentary

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An American woman named Therese Shaheen recently leapt into the limelight across the Taiwan Straits for her open remarks on the Taiwan issue. As the new chairwoman of the so-called American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), Shaheen not only busied herself with Chen Shui-bian's stopover in America, but also openly claimed that President Bush only said the United States "doesn't support Taiwan independence", he didn't say "opposing Taiwan independence".

Her remark, apparently serving to back up "Taiwan independence" elements, naturally aroused strong resentment of the Chinese government. Foreign Ministry spokesman twice openly refuted Shaheen's remarks, warning her "to be well aware of the sensitivity of the Taiwan issue and the danger of "Taiwan independence", and not to speak recklessly.

But the US side did nothing to Shaheen, except making a slight clarification of her remarks. This shows that perhaps Shaheen has spoken out some sort of stand taken by the United States on the Taiwan Issue. Due to US great influence on the cross-Straits relations, people pay high attention to US statement on its stance on relevant issues, especially its stand on "Taiwan independence". In fact, on different occasions, Americans' positions are subtly different. Sometimes they say they "don't support Taiwan independence" and at other times they claim they "oppose 'Taiwan independence'". There may be several reasons for that. First, Americans are comparatively causal in their speech, not like our strictness and consistency in wording. Second, different American officials take different attitudes toward this question, which is naturally shown in their expressions. Third, the American policy toward Taiwan is itself subtle and ambiguous, and it is a "vague" strategy.

If the above-mentioned judgments are correct, we don't need to care much about a certain expression of the US stance, what is more important is to make an overall judgment of the US basic strategy. In fact, America's smug calculations on the Taiwan issue is to maintain the status quo of the Taiwan Straits, that is to say, Taiwan does not go in for independence, and the mainland does not use force, in this way, the United States could achieve its aim of containing China, and could avoid being dragged into war by conflicts across the Straits.

However, the development of the situation in the Taiwan Straits seems to have put US smug calculations to tests. Thanks to the mainland's calmness and restraint, the current cross-Straits situation looks not as tense as it was in 1996, but due to the fact that Chen Shui-bian is going farther and farther down the road to "Taiwan independence", and is about to touch the bottom line of the mainland's tolerance, the real danger of the situation has gone far beyond that in 1996. At such a critical and subtle moment, it is of particular importance for the parties involved, including the United States, not to misjudge the situation, so that the situation would not run out of control as a result of misjudgment.

Two most important judgments for the United States are: First is to judge whether Chen Shui-bian and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are seeking for independence. Second is to judge whether the mainland will tolerate Taiwan's independence.

In the perspective of the mainland, Chen Shui-bian's gradual "Taiwan independence" is crystal clear, its final goal is "Taiwan independence" and to this end the pace tends to be quickened step by step. But Americans seem to have different impressions on Chen Shui-bian, we don't know whether Americans are cheated by Chen into making wrong judgments, or they are playing the fool and deliberately connive at Chen's independence claims. If the case is the former, Americans should sober down and correct their misjudgment instead of being played with fast and loose by Chen; if the case is the latter, then Americans are playing a dangerous game. Indulgence to Taiwan separatists may superficially meet the desire of some American politicians for containing China, but if "Taiwan independence" forces are allowed to develop unchecked, it may be tantamount to fostering "trouble-makers", which would inevitably bring disaster to America's own security and strategic interests, thus upsetting its wishful thinking. Because the mainland, both its government and its people, will never tolerate Taiwan independence and this is the bottom line for which the mainland would fight to protect at any cost.

If America connives at Taiwan separatists to touch this line, then war will be unavoidable. Once the flame of war is kindled, in what a position will America place itself? Viewed from the American stance, it is hard to give an answer to this question. Participating in a war? It is bound to incur tragic casualties, with the number of deaths and injuries to be incurred amounting to thousand times that incurred in the Iraq war, and it remains a question whether America can summon enough strength under the circumstances wherein it is bogged down in the mire in Iraq and Afghanistan. Stand by and watch? The mainland, no doubt, is to take Taiwan and reunify the motherland, then the "unsinkable aircraft carrier" used by America to contain China would cease to exist. Neither of the cases would be in American interests.

Morally speaking, America should live up to its words and honor its commitments. America recognizes the one-China principle and Taiwan as part of China, but at the same time it sells weapons to Taiwan and holds back China's reunification process. This cannot be justified legally and morally. Don't think that there is but interests between countries, morality must also be stressed. This is particularly true of the United States as a great country. The consequences of losing one's morality have been fully seen in the after-effects of the Iraq war.

During the 19th century Civil War, president Lincoln saved the national unity by resolutely leading northern armies and people to put down the rebellion when southern states declared independence. The history may help the American people to understand the Chinese people's will and determination to maintain national unification. As the Chinese saying goes, don't do to others what you don't want others to do to you. For a country that once secured its unification by war, its obstruction of another country's unification not only is at variance with its national interests, but also is immoral.

The Chinese and American peoples share a precious history of fighting shoulder to shoulder against Japanese militarism. The Chinese people hope that China and the United States can maintain their friendly relationship, but such a friendly tie must be fostered jointly by both sides. America should be well aware that the Chinese government, in handling relations with America, has always taken the general situation into consideration and exercised restraint and tolerance, even exerted great efforts and paid huge prices in this regard. The American inconsistence in its words and deeds and its double-dealing is bound to create ill feelings among Chinese people. whether it is a gain or loss, advantage or disadvantage for the United States to worsen its relations with the mainland for the sake of Taiwan, is an absolutely clear matter.

For the Chinese side, of course we should closely watch the American attitude and try to prevent it from becoming an element holding back the reunification process. But what's more important is to develop our overall national strength and put the basic point for solving the Taiwan issue on our own strength, this is a matter of paramount importance.

(Article by Lin Zhibo at People.com.cn, November 27, translated by PD Online staff member Li Heng.)

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