Chen Shui-bian's administrative smokescreen

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Saturday, November 08, 2003

Chen Shui-bian's administrative smokescreen

Taiwan's "legislative yuan" recently approved amendments to regulations concerning relations between the people of Taiwan and the mainland.

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Taiwan's "legislative yuan" recently approved amendments to regulations concerning relations between the people of Taiwan and the mainland.

The regulations will become the island's new "guiding legal basis" for dealing with cross-Straits ties and will have, to a certain degree, an impact on the development of its mainland links.

This is the eighth and largest revision of cross-Straits relations regulations since 1992. Of the items, 70 per cent have been amended.

In particular, the areas concerning cross-Straits consultation, the "three direct links" (trade, postal services and transportation) and economic, trade and cultural exchanges have been adjusted substantially.

For instance, with regard to cross-Straits consultation, an amendment stipulates that besides the Taiwan-based Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), other qualified non-governmental groups can also be entrusted by the "mainland affairs council" or other related authorities to assist in dealing with cross-Straits affairs.

The amendments have also loosened restrictions on the exchange of personnel, culture and education as well as trade and economics.

The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had to make some adjustments as it has been facing increasing pressure from the Taiwan public and calls for substantial change, because the regulations had not been able to cater to the great changes occurring between Taiwan and the mainland.

The amendments are also a major election tactic of both the ruling and opposition parties on the island.

The opposition Kuomintang Party (KMT) and People First Party (PFP) have kept playing the "three direct links" card to seek the support of voters. With loud cries from all circles, in particular the industrial and commercial sectors on the island as well as entrepreneurs who urged the realization of the "three direct links," the DPP was forced to propose the draft amendments in October last year.

However, due to a lack of consensus between the ruling and opposition parties on key issues including the "three direct links," the October amendments were never passed.

With the approaching of the 2004 "presidential election" and to meet the demands of all on the island and avoid being accused of "preventing the three direct links from being realized," especially to seek support from the million strong Taiwan entrepreneurs and their relatives and friends, all parties had to reach a compromise before the election year.

The cross-Straits ties amendments are perceived as helpful to the current Taiwan leader, Chen Shui-bian, during his election campaign. Poor administrative performance and an economic downturn are the major obstacles to Chen's pursuit of re-election.

Since the beginning of this year, Chen has been pushing for re-election by playing the "reunification or independence" card. He even publicly trumpeted "promoting the birth of a new Constitution of Taiwan through a referendum."

But various opinion polls on the island have demonstrated that playing with the topics of "reunification or independence" and the game of "populism" have done nothing to win support.

On the contrary, the gap between Chen and his rivals, KMT leader Lien Chan and PFP leader James Soong, has even widened.

Showing his so-called "sincerity" in promoting the "three direct links" does not only deceive voters but weakens the impact of opposition parties' calls for "direct transport."

Also, opening up cross-Straits economic and trade exchanges can, in the short term, inspire the stock market, attract foreign capital and stimulate the economy, helping to create an image of Chen doing his all for the economy.

In fact, the recent amendments are mostly retroactive recognition of established facts.

For instance, allowing the establishment of co-o peration between schools across the Straits and exchanges between the overseas branches of the financial institutions on both sides is merely the legalization of existing facts. But the extent of openness has not yet exceeded the scope of the current policy as the Taiwan authorities have claimed.

Since it was founded in 1991, the SEF has been the only semi-official institution entrusted by the Taiwan authorities to take charge of affairs relating to cross-Straits exchanges.

Nevertheless, the key basis of consultation between the SEF and the Beijing-based Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits, namely the "1992 consensus," was completely destroyed after former DPP leader Lee Teng-hui dished out his "state-to-state theory" in July 1999.

Worse, since it took office, the DPP has refused to recognize the "1992 consensus," which resulted in the suspension of channels of contact between the two semi-official institutions on both sides.

However, many other non-governmental organizations have appeared on the island to deal with cross-Straits affairs.

Facing calls for consultation through non-governmental channels and attempting to resume cross-Straits consultation while avoiding the prerequisite of the one-China principle, the Taiwan authorities proposed the so-called "multi-entrustment mechanism." This will not only break the monopoly position of SEF as Taiwan's sole entrusted institution for dealing with cross-Straits affairs, but create a new situation of carrying out cross-Straits consultation through multiple channels.

In the first instance, the amendments to the regulations will be favourable to the development of cross-Straits relations by loosening restrictions on economic and personnel exchanges.

However, if the Taiwan authorities refuse to accept the one-China principle and the "1992 consensus" and implement the regulations according to their "state-to-state" scheme, the amended regulations will become nothing more than pieces of paper.

Many scholars believe that the nature of cross-Straits relations lies in whether or not the Taiwan authorities will accept the one-China principle and the "1992 consensus."

The amendments to the regulations are just a form of smokescreen and will not have any real impact on cross-Straits relations, they said.

The author is a researcher with the Institute of Taiwan Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

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