CASS predicts high GDP growth for 2003

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Monday, October 27, 2003

CASS predicts high GDP growth for 2003

China's gross domestic product (GDP)growth for 2003 is predicted at around 8.2 percent in a report carried Monday by the Beijing-based newspaper, Economic Information Daily.

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China's gross domestic product (GDP)growth for 2003 is predicted at around 8.2 percent in a report carried Monday by the Beijing-based newspaper, Economic Information Daily.

According to the report, which was released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, one of China's leading academic institutions, the country's economy will maintain fast growth thisyear and next year, with annual GDP growth rate exceeding the average level for the past five years since the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis in 1997.

The GDP growth rate for 2004, if neither abrupt changes in the international political and economic environment nor severe domestic natural disasters occur, should reach 8 percent, said thereport.

Investments in fixed assets for 2003 and 2004 are predicted at 5.15 trillion yuan (620.5 billion US dollars) and 5.856 trillion yuan (705.5 billion US dollars) respectively, with actual annual increase rates standing at 18 percent and 12.1 percent.

The expected fall in growth rate of fixed assets investment in 2004, will be the result of China's macro-economic control and thedeepening of economic reconstruction following the likely record high in 2003 since 1997.

The issue of deflation, which has been troubling China since the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis in 1997, will be further alleviated, noted the report.

For urban residents, the impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) is likely to slow down the increase rate of per-capita income in 2003, but a rapid recovery is likely next year.

But rural residents will suffer more from the epidemic disease and the growth rate of their per capita income will remain much slower than for their urban counterparts.

Consumption is expected to maintain relatively stable growth and act as one of the crucial factors boosting economic progress, the report said.

The pace of progress in foreign trade was somewhat affected by SARS in the first half of the year, but growth momentum for the whole year remains relatively strong. Enditem

Expert expects Chinese economy to grow 8.5 percent next year

China's national economy is expected to grow 8.5 percent in 2004, said Liu Shijin, director of the Research Department of Industrial Economy of the Development Research Center of the State Council.

The industrial added value next year will increase 13 to 15 percent, and the price level will remain stable, he said.

In 2004, China's automobile and steel industries will maintain rapid growth, and the computer and machinery industries will increase steadily.

Liu also forecast that the fast urbanization process will stimulate the infrastructure construction of railways, airports, harbors and motorways, and foreign investment in China will grow at a slower rate.

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