News analysis: Iran defuses nuclear crisis, wins time

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Friday, October 24, 2003

News analysis: Iran defuses nuclear crisis, wins time

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After carefully weighing the odds of signing an additional protocol to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has finally decided to do so, winning itself a respite from huge pressures both internationally and within the country, analysts say.

Iran said on Wednesday it would sign the NPT's additional protocol and would hand over documents on its past nuclear activities to the UN nuclear watchdog later in the day to allay international suspicions it is building an atomic bomb.

The move would meet a key demand of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which had given Tehran an Oct. 31 deadline to clear up suspicions about its nuclear ambitions.

Under the agreement brokered by the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany in Tehran on Tuesday, Iran also pledged to implement the tough inspection regime ahead of ratification and to suspend its uranium enrichment, which many Western governments have feared could be part of a secret nuclear arms program.

The actions eased worries in the international community of a possible conflict and also brought hope for a peaceful resolution to Iran's sensitive nuclear program.

Iran has insisted, however, that its suspension of uranium enrichment facilities is a voluntary and temporary measure, arousing concerns among some experts that Tehran has not ruled out pursuing nuclear weapons at a later stage.

WHY IRAN AGREED TO SIGN THE ADDITIONAL PROTOCOL

Iran's nuclear program had been in the international limelight since last year, after US President George W. Bush named Iran as amember of an "axis of evil," along with Iraq and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).

Bush went to war with Iraq over weapons of mass destruction earlier this year and later, after "winning" the war in Iraq as Bush claimed, made Iran a top post-Iraq priority. Bush had urged the international community to make clear "we will not tolerate" construction of a nuclear weapon by Iran.

Iran's attitude toward its nuclear program became more and more sensitive as the Oct. 31 deadline, which was set on Sept. 12, is looming for Tehran to prove it has no ambitions for atomic arms.

Tehran was then hard pressed to make a decision on whether it was ready to stand against the international community and what a price it was ready to pay if it chose not to cooperate with the IAEA.

That was not at all an easy decision to make.

If Tehran failed to reach an agreement with the IAEA on the inspection mission, the UN nuclear watchdog would refer the case to the UN Security Council in November. That might mean Iran would have to face sanctions and embargo from many Western countries.

Last week, IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei visited Tehran for the third time this year, trying to persuade Iran to sign the additional protocol. Iranian President Mohammad Khatami insisted on respect for his country's rights to have access to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.

Khatami and the reformists then agreed that Iran should sign the protocol and invite IAEA inspectors to their country to prove that Iran's nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only.

They argued that the inspection would dispel the misgivings by the international community about Iran's nuclear program, and win back Iran's economic and technological communication with other countries while giving no excuse for the United States to initiatean embargo on Iran.

But conservatives in Iran insisted that Iran has no obligation to satisfy the IAEA demands because the inspection might cause more trouble to Iran as it might be used by American and Israeli special agents to steal Iran's intelligence, thus compromising the country's national security.

Facing pressures from both conservatives at home and the IAEA and weighing the pros and cons of making a compromise, President Khatami said last Sunday that Tehran would halt its uranium program if its right to have nuclear technology is preserved.

That was the first indication from an Iranian leader that Iran could mothball uranium enrichment facilities which it began building in 1985. That also indicated that Iran had already changed its position on the issue and would agree to resolve the dispute peacefully.

ElBaradei and IAEA experts had reportedly assured Tehran that its signing of the additional protocol would not do any harm to Iran's national security, national interests and religious beliefs.

The foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany also pledged to Iran that they would promote their country's cooperation with Tehran and might possibly provide technical assistance to Iran's development of atomic energy for peaceful proposes.

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