Xinhua News analysis: Behind Israel's Decision to Expel Arafat

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Xinhua News analysis: Behind Israel's Decision to Expel Arafat

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Israeli security cabinet on Thursday evening decided to expel Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, branding Arafat as an "obstacle" to peace and vowing to remove him "in the manner, at the time, and in the ways that will be decided on separately."

Obviously, the deadly spiral of violence during the past weeks, especially the twin suicide bombings on Tuesday that killed 15Israelis and made Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon cut short his visit to India, has given direct fuel to the decision of Arafat's removal.

A long-existing fact in the region is that after each suicide attack, the prospect of such a move to expel Arafat will grow, as those hard-liners gain additional reinforcements.

This time, after the twin suicide bombings respectively near TelAviv and in Jerusalem, the renewed call to expel Arafat came to its peak and it is very hard for the Israeli government to ignore such a wide-spread feeling.

The resignation of the first Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) is also something that pushed the Israeli government to do something to Arafat in order to put an end to the frustration caused by the failure of Abbas's reform and peace efforts.

The prevailing idea among high-ranking Israeli officials is that as long as Arafat is there, no one will be able to have the real power to make real changes to the Palestinian National Authority, unify its security forces and halt the violence.

"Arafat should at least take indirect responsibility for the bloodshed, because thousands of Palestinian security forces are under his own control, but he did nothing to dismantle terrorist groups and thus give a free hand to (Islamic Resistance Movement) Hamas to bomb Israeli buses and shops," a high-ranking Israeli official said.

Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, one of the earliest public supporters of the move to deport Arafat, told the press recently that he believes there is a majority within the 23-memberIsraeli cabinet to support the move to expel Arafat. "The moment Arafat is out, someone else will sprout up after him and will control the security forces and the Palestinian funds, "Shalom said, adding that "the moment he isn't here, more moderate officials will be able to move in after him."

According to a latest survey conducted by Israel's Dialogue Institute, 35 percent of the Israelis believe that Israel should only negotiate with Palestinian officials who are not linked to Arafat in light of Mahmoud Abbas's resignation as prime minister. Furthermore, 18 percent of the respondents are in favor of Israel's assassination of Arafat.

There are other reasons for an increasing number of Israelis to want Arafat out.

For example, Arafat's alleged unreliability, or duplicity, has been described as "being demonstrated repeatedly over the years", but, one can not forget that behind the latest Israeli move to expel Arafat, there is also something Israel want to hide. Since Sharon took office more than two years ago, his promise to bring peace, security and prosperity to the voters has so far resulted in nothing.

Facing the growing pressure from the Israeli public's anger, to blaming Arafat and shift the public's attention from the failure of its own government to "an enemy of the country" might be a good choice for Sharon's cabinet.

An editorial appeared on Friday's local Haaretz Daily pointed out that the idea of expelling Arafat is raised anew every time the government appears powerless to prevent attacks.

But, the editorial said, expelling Arafat would not help and it might hurt: it is liable to completely destroy any chance for negotiations with any wing of the moderate Palestinian leadership, and that might well prove to be the greatest success of all for the terrorist organizations.

Naomi Chazan, a former Israeli parliament member and a professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said that the idea of regarding the move of Arafat's expulsion as a solution for the current peace deadlock is "simplistic", because the ongoing conflict can not be reduced to one personal factor.

According to the scholar, the move for the exile of Arafat, like the previous exhortations for his confinement, is inherently contradictory.

"If, indeed, he is so important, then his exile would lead to acomplete breakdown of order in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. If he is insignificant, then clearly there is no reason to call for his ouster," he said.

Local observers also noted that though the Israeli security cabinet decided Thursday to "remove" Arafat, the Israeli government actually made no decision on the timing and method, meaning that at least for a short time Arafat will remain unharmed.

"There is no point in making decisions in principle if you don't intend to do anything," Israeli Interior Minister Avraham Poraz said.

When asked why did Israel make such a vague decision, an Israeli scholar said it is because Israel, under the current hardline government, has used up all the methods to try to put an end to the violence.

"There are some people who believe this is the best of the bad choices before us, we haven't tried this yet, it could be that an exiled Arafat would be better for us," he said.

However, the scholar admitted that to expel Arafat is far from sufficient to achieve security and peace for Israel. Instead, "we have to give the Palestinians the light at the end of the tunnel and show them there is a reward, otherwise there is nothing but despair and violence," he said.

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