News Analysis: Peace in Liberia: A Long Way to Go

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Tuesday, August 12, 2003

News Analysis: Peace in Liberia: A Long Way to Go

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The resignation and departure of Liberia's former president Charles Taylor on Monday was welcomed by international community, but real peace in the embattled country is still a long way to go, local analysts said.

The departure of Taylor, a former warlord indicted by a UN-backed special court in Sierra Leone for war crime, who just began a life of exile in Nigeria, is only the beginning of an overall ceasefire rather than a long-term peace in Liberia, they said.

The 14-year-long Liberian civil war, which claimed at least 200,000 lives and some 300,000 people displace and flared up again in 1998 following attacks launched by the Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD) rebels in northern Liberia, has made an once beautiful coastal country in West African sub-region a land of sorrow.

Peaceful environment: key to success of presidential election

As more peacekeeping troops are moving into the West African country, the situation there has become better. But the transition or interim government headed by the new President Moses Blah, once deputy of Taylor, is going to face a string of problems, and it must do its utmost to solve them to pave the way for conducting a new civilian presidential election.

The LURD, together with another anti-government rebel group the Movement for Democracy in Liberia (MODEL) emerged early this year, was not happy with Taylor's handover of power to his vice president, saying that they did not accept Blah's government and would continue to fight against the government. So fighting between the government troops and rebel forces would likely continue even without Taylor.

Even worse, both the LURD and MODEL do not cooperate with the peacekeeping vanguard or allow them to come into the areas controlled by them, especially the Monrovia's port and other areas of strategic importance to carry out peacekeeping as well as humanitarian missions.

Liberia is a multinational country with 22 ethnic groups who have different religious beliefs. It brings more trouble for political parties, which all keep their eyes on the vacancy left by Taylor's exit, to lead the country smoothly to a fair and free presidential election, which is critical for successfully returning the peace to the country.

Taylor's ambition to return to Liberia

At the handover ceremony on Monday afternoon, Taylor said, "I will be back." In fact, Taylor had said time and again that he would return to Liberia.

According to a reliable source close to Taylor, Taylor prefers to stay in Libya rather than in Nigeria for his safety and interests.

Taylor, who had received military training in Libya, is one of the closest friends of Libya's President Omar Muammar al-Qathafi who supported Taylor financially and militarily.

In addition, there are large numbers of Taylor's supporters in the northern African country who would like to follow Taylor when he comes back to Liberia, if possible.

Observers said that after Taylor left Liberia, his supporters in the political and military fields are still numerous and have strong influences in the country. It is possible for Taylor to reorganize his followers, especially those in his National Patriotic Party, and lead them to start another civil war as he did 10 years ago.

Tough post-war problems

Even if stakeholders agree to sit peacefully at table to discuss the next presidential election, the transit or interim government still face a string of headaches required to be solved without delay.

Such problems include the replacement of fighters, teenage fighters in particular, 250,000 refugees and hundreds upon thousands of those Liberians now displaced in the neighboring countries as well as economic reconstruction and development.

Local analysts said although Taylor had stepped down and left Liberia, it would take at least six months or even one year and a half for the Blah caretaker government to handle the post-war matters to pave the way for carrying out a free, fair and peaceful presidential election in the country.

In a word, it will be a long way for Liberia to make itself a peaceful and prosperous country.

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