News Analysis: Election Outcome in Cambodia Shadowed with Suspense, Uncertainty

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Sunday, August 10, 2003

News Analysis: Election Outcome in Cambodia Shadowed with Suspense, Uncertainty

The apparent victory of the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP) in the July 27 election camenot as a surprise to many but it held profound implications for Cambodia's politics.

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The apparent victory of the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP) in the July 27 election camenot as a surprise to many but it held profound implications for Cambodia's politics.

According to initial results announced by the National ElectionCommittee (NEC) on Friday, the CPP won most votes in the multi-party election and may collect 73 seats, to be followed by FUNCINPEC and the Sam Rainsy Party (SRP), about 26 and 24 seats respectively. Specific number of seats each party collected in the123-seat National Assembly are expected as early as August 14.

It was certain, however, that the CPP did not get the required two-third majority, or 82 seats, in the Assembly to form a one-party government. Therefore, a coalition government, with FUNCINPEC or the SRP -- perhaps even both, is in the offing with the CPP, the largest party naming the prime minister.

FUNCINPEC and the SRP hate to see that happen but would have toaccept the status quo in a longer term as the election has been accepted by the international community, which has sent about 1,000 observers to monitor the voting, analysts said.

The two parties, licking their wounds after the election, have to ponder why their previous predictions of big wins in the election did not materialize and why the CPP, keeping a low profile during the election campaign, emerged as a winner.

The CPP owed much to its grip of power since the early 1980s. With a strong base in most of the provinces, particularly in the countryside, the CPP boasts a four million membership, making up more than half of the 6.3 million registered voters.

The CPP greatly outnumbered its rivals FUNCINPEC and the SRP, and this superiority helped turn the tide in favor of the CPP, analysts said.

They said the CPP's control over the armed forces, police, judiciary and media could have had a great impact on voters who, are still struggling with the legacy of decades of civil unrest, want a permanent peace and stability much more than anything else.

Ordinary Cambodians hope that a smooth transition to a new government will bring stability to the country and allow international donors to continue supporting its rehabilitation.

It was the belief of many voters that only the CPP is powerful enough to maintain peace and stability, analysts said.

"What would happen if the CPP had been defeated and refused to hand over power?" an Asian diplomat asked. "People are afraid of unrest in the post-election period just like after the 1998 election, so they elected a party which they think can secure peace."

In addition, people were impressed by what the CPP had done in facilitating peace and political stability in the country. It was in the hands of the CPP that the problem of the Democratic Kampuchea was resolved.

The CPP also devotes its attention to economic and social development, including the implementation of a market economy and the construction of irrigation projects, roads and schools. All these factors contributed to the CPP's victory.

As the former chief of the UN peacekeeping operation Yasushi Akashi said, Cambodians generally "enjoy a much better life" than they did a decade ago.

Meanwhile, the split and row within FUNCINPEC weakened its leverage against the united and well-organized CPP. "If FUNCINPEChad united, the result would have been much different," a FUNCINPEC official said.

FUNCINPEC and the SRP, claiming polling and vote-counting fraud,now stand united against a common adversary. They have vowed that they would not form a coalition government with the CPP unless it was a tripartite government or a government without Hun Sen as premier.

If they stick together, the two parties' combined strength could keep the new parliament from meeting and deny the CPP the ability to form a government, thus plunging Cambodia into a political stalemate.

By law, a new National Assembly must convene within 60 days of the election.

This might require King Norodom Sihanouk's intervention, diplomats said, as like in 1998.

But they said the two parties' (FUNCINPEC and the SRP) acrimonious history, along with what is expected to be intense pressure from diplomats and the king, will probably cause FUNCINPEC to break away and form another coalition with the CPP, just like in 1998, perhaps in exchange for some key ministries andpromise.

"Anything can happen, but I don't think it will last very long," one Asian diplomat said of the parties' rejection of a coalition. (By Zhang Ruiling Lei Bosong)��

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