Currency Has Little Effect on China's Export Prowess: Morgan Stanley

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Monday, July 07, 2003

Currency Has Little Effect on China's Export Prowess: Morgan Stanley

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China's competitive prowess has little to do with the value of the Renminbi (RMB) despite accusations that pegging the currency to a weaker US dollar has given China an unfair advantage, said Stephen S. Roach, chief economist of Morgan Stanley & Co., Monday in Beijing.

Roach said the theory that currency policy was to blame for China's trade surplus overlooked the country's competitiveness in labor costs, technology, infrastructure, human capital and its passion for reform.

"I can't see vigorous growth anywhere except China," Roach said,"but it is not surprising that China has strong exports provided the considerable increase of foreign investment."

The performance of both domestic companies and multinationals contributed to the booming exports, he added.

China had emerged as "the leading scapegoat" in the still depressed global economy while the United States, Europe and Japanwere struggling with their own problems, Roach said.

The country had long made a commitment to open its capital market, including lifting controls on its currency, and had made favorable progress, he said.

"The day is closer but still years away," Roach said. "China must not be forced to accelerate the long-term process to an open capital market and flotation of the RMB by external conditions."

The country's handling of the SARS crisis had made it more likea global leader and the impact of the disease on its economy was much weaker than expected, Roach said, adding that Morgan Stanley's earlier report had overrated the negative effect of SARS on China's gross domestic product growth.

Morgan Stanley has just been granted an investment line of 300 million US dollars after becoming the fourth qualified foreign institutional investor in China on July 3.

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