Beijing's SARS Patients to Drop to Less Than 60 in July

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Sunday, June 15, 2003

Beijing's SARS Patients to Drop to Less Than 60 in July

The number of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) patients in Beijing hospitals is expected to drop to about 60 around July 10.

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The number of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) patients in Beijing hospitals is expected to drop to about 60 around July 10.

The forecast was based on a report made by a research group ledby Fang Zhaoben, a professor at the Chinese University of Science and Technology in Hefei, capital of east China's Anhui Province.

Fang's group has been engaged in statistical analysis of figures released worldwide on SARS patients, suspected SARS patients and SARS fatalities.

The group made a preliminary forecast on the decreasing trend of hospitalized SARS patients in Beijing, the worst-hit area in the world, with a method called chromatography non-linear trend.

Researchers estimated the number of SARS patients in hospital in Beijing at 100 around July 5 and less than 60 around July 10, anumber low enough for the World Health Organization to lift its travel advisory.

The next month was a critical period, Fang said, urging people in Beijing to remain vigilant in the fight against SARS.

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