GDP is Growing Despite Disease

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Friday, May 16, 2003

GDP is Growing Despite Disease

China's economic growth remained fundamentally strong in April, although it was slowed by SARS, which has curtailed consumption and hurt industrial output.

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China's economic growth remained fundamentally strong in April, although it was slowed by SARS, which has curtailed consumption and hurt industrial output.

China's gross domestic product rose 8.9 percent last month from a year ago, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, which released monthly GDP figures for the first time in its history in order to show the spread of SARS has had only a limited influence on the nation's economy. Usually, the bureau only reports quarterly figures.

The national economy expanded 9.9 percent during the first quarter - its fastest growth rate since 1997 - to reach 2.36 trillion yuan (US$283.8 billion), according to the bureau.

Dynamic increases in industrial production and exports were the main engines for growth during the first three months of the year. But economists said industrial output growth stalled during the past month due to reduced demand from both domestic retailers and overseas buyers.

Domestic manufacturers posted industrial production worth 319.7 billion yuan last month, compared with 313.4 billion yuan in March.

"Industrial output in April was almost the same with that of March - that means no increase," said Song Guoqing, an economics professor at Beijing University.

Retail sales in April increased 7.7 percent year on year to 340.7 billion yuan, down from 349.5 billion yuan in March.

"The tourism and catering sectors have already been affected, but some 'neglected' products saw phenomenal growth in sales," Song said, referring to masks and disinfectants.

Economists say the country's economic growth could slow further as the effects of SARS began to emerge.

A Beijing University report calculated that the SARS may erase 210 billion yuan from the nation's balance sheet this year.

The report, produced by Beijing University's China Center for Economic Research and the Research Institute of China's Health Policy, forecast the nation's GDP would grow by 6 percent to 7 percent this year. China's GDP increased 8 percent in 2002.

China's exports rose by a third from a year earlier in April as Chinese factories filled overseas orders made months ago, before the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome began to affect the economy.

Export data in the coming two to three months will still reflect existing orders, while disruptions to new orders won't emerge until the summer.

Wang Hongman, a professor at Beijing University, remains optimistic about the disease's long-term effects, describing it as a tumor that will be removed eventually.Enditem

Source: Shanghai Daily News

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