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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Thursday, May 08, 2003

WHO Sharply Raises Estimate for SARS Fatality Rate

The World Health Organization (WHO) said Wednesday it has revised its estimate of the fatality rate for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) to 14-15%, up sharply from its initial estimate of around 4%.


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The World Health Organization (WHO) said Wednesday it has revised its estimate of the fatality rate for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) to 14-15%, up sharply from its initial estimate of around 4%.

The U.N. health body said the fatality rate of the epidemic gets higher the older the person is, with the rate greater than 50% for those aged 65 and older.

The estimates were based on an analysis of the latest cases of SARS in Canada, China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Vietnam.

As of 5 p.m. Wednesday local time, the global death toll from SARS was up 17 from the previous day to 495, with 219 in China and 204 in Hong Kong.

The cumulative worldwide number of infections, including probable cases of infection, came to 6,903, two thirds of them in China.

The latest WHO estimate for the fatality rate means that even if there are no more new cases of SARS infections, around 1,000 people could die.

The revised estimate for the fatality rate was based on an analysis of individual data tracking the course of the illness from its onset.

According to the analysis, the fatality rate was estimated to be less than 1% in people aged 24 years or younger, 6% for people aged 25 to 44 years, and 15% in those aged 45 to 64 years and even higher for those aged 65 years and older.

The WHO also said that in addition to age, factors that influence the fatality rate are a history of past illnesses such as those of the respiratory system, the amount of SARS virus absorbed by the body at the time of infection, and whether treatment was swiftly dispensed.

Source: Agencies


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