Developing Asia to Grow 5.3 Percent in 2003: ADB

Home>>World

Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Monday, April 28, 2003

Developing Asia to Grow 5.3 Percent in 2003: ADB

DISCUSSION

CHINESE

SEND TO FRIEND

Developing Asia's economic growth will slow to 5.3 percent in 2003 from last year's 5.7 percent due to the recent outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in a report released Monday in Manila.

The softness in the world economy expected for the first half of 2003 and uncertainties linked to the conflict in Iraq also weighed on the forecast for the region's average gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the Manila-based ADB said in its flagship annual report, Asian Development Outlook 2003.

Despite this, the region remains the world's economic bright spot and is expected to outperform the rest of the world economy including the United States, Japan and the euro area, said the report, which analyzes and forecasts economic trends in the 41 developing economies in the Asia and Pacific region.

The region's aggregate GDP growth will pick up to 5.9 percent in 2004, when a stronger world economy is predicted, it said.

The main driving forces behind the robust outlook for Asia and the Pacific are expected continued strong domestic demand, improving export performance, as well as a supportive policy environment, prudent fiscal and monetary policies in particular, the report said.

The average inflation for the region is estimated at a moderate2.5 percent for 2003, about a percentage point higher than in 2002,while the region's merchandise exports are projected to grow 7.9 percent, lower than the 9.4 percent in 2002.

The report said the region's economic outlook remains highly vulnerable to such risks as further weakness in industrial countries and the impact of the dreaded SARS on business travel and tourism, a major source of revenue and employment for the region.

But it believes that developing Asia is well positioned to face any emerging global challenges thanks to the region's strong fundamentals, reflected by the generally low inflation rates and high level of reserves, estimated at about 1 trillion US dollars at the end of 2002.

On sub-regions, the report said East Asia's growth will moderate to 5.6 percent in 2003 from the 6.5 percent last year before bouncing back to 6.2 percent in 2004. The sub-regional progress hinges on the global economic recovery and the continued rapid expansion of China's mainland, which is forecast at 7.3 percent in 2003 and 7.6 percent in 2004, though lower than the 8 percent recorded in 2002.

Southeast Asia is projected to grow 4 percent this year and accelerate to 4.8 percent next year after expanding by 4.1 percent in 2002. The report said continued strength of exports will be critical for the sub-region, while domestic demand will be supported by accommodative monetary policies.

South Asia's growth, which posted a rate of 4.2 percent in 2002,is expected to climb to 5.7 percent this year and further to 6.1 percent next year. The stronger showing will be led by improved performance of India, which accounts for three quarters of the sub-regional economy. India will grow 6 percent this year and 6.3 percent next year, compared with the 4.4 percent last year.

Central Asia's economy, which showed a strong growth of 7.7 percent in 2002, is forecast to decelerate to 5.8 percent for 2003and 2004 as oil and gas production slows somewhat.

The Pacific economies are expected to continue a modest rebound, with growth of 2.4 percent in 2003 and 2.5 percent in 2004. The sub-region grew 0.9 percent last year after two years of decline.

Questions?Comments? Click here

China's Emergence Affecting Trade Patterns, Growth in Asia: ADB

China's Growth Benefits Neighbours - ADB

China to Send Lunar-Probe Satellite in 3 Years: Expert ( 2 Messages)

Analysis: Germany Softening Anti-War Tone as It Enters UN Security Council ( 3 Messages)

Chinese Premier Pledges to Improve SARS Control ( 2 Messages)

China Launches First "Indigenous" Management Theory ( 9 Messages)

China Protects Safety of People from Overseas ( 3 Messages)