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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Saturday, April 05, 2003

Why Northern Iraq Remains a 'Silent Front'

More than two weeks since the outbreak of the Iraq war on March 20, northern Iraq has remained a"silent front" while the southern part of the country witnesses fierce fighting between the United States-led coalition forces and Iraqi armies.


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More than two weeks since the outbreak of the Iraq war on March 20, northern Iraq has remained a"silent front" while the southern part of the country witnesses fierce fighting between the United States-led coalition forces and Iraqi armies.

Originally, the Pentagon had apparently conceived a completely different scenario: following an unprecedented scale of air raids,the coalition forces would simultaneously launch two fronts, respectively from Turkey down to Baghdad and from Kuwait upwards to a swift victory.

The disparity in intensity of the ongoing war so far was primarily a result of a US diplomatic debacle which deprived Washington of a chance to deploy troops in Turkey to launch the northern front, the second front, analysts said.

In order to win Ankara's "OK" to the deployment of the elite 4th Infantry of the US Army on Turkish soil, Washington had proposed an economic aid package of 26 billion US dollars and tried to push Ankara to an early approval.

After months of hard bargaining, however, Ankara refused to budge and only agreed to open its air space to US warplanes two days into the war.

Moreover, the setbacks that the US-led troops suffered in the southern front shortly after the war broke out prevented the allied forces from executing alternate plans, including launching the northern front.

Under the Pentagon's original plans, the US troops could seize airports in northern Iraq after the start of the war and airdrop troops to open a new front from the north even if Turkey turned down the US request for troop deployment in the country.

Unexpectedly tough resistance from Iraqis and the US troops' over-stretched supply lines in the early days of the war forced USand British troops to slow down their once aggressive push towardsBaghdad in the second week of the war.

US field commanders also confirmed the insufficiency of ground troops and supplies which might weaken their capability of settingup a northern front at that time.

Turkey's willingness to send troops into northern Iraq also undermined US efforts to open a crucial northern front.

Ankara argued that it needed to set up buffer zones in northernIraq to block the flow of refugees into its territory and also prevent Kurds in northern Iraq from declaring independence.

Washington was strongly against the Turkish incursion into Iraq,emphasizing that the presence of Turkish forces in northern Iraq would lead to possible conflicts with the Kurds and disarrange Washington's war strategy.

As a compromise, the United States started to monitor the Kurdsin northern Iraq and would not use them against Saddam in a local alliance with the US.

Iraqi forces in the north, including four divisions of Iraq's elite Republican Guard, remain intact and down in Baghdad to beef up the defense there.

Once the Republican Guard units manage to retreat into Baghdad to fight to the death, it will complicate US efforts to take over the Iraqi capital through an inevitable urban war with limited casualties, as they wished.


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