Oil and Votes, Two Factors Fueling the War: Analysis

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Wednesday, March 26, 2003

Oil and Votes, Two Factors Fueling the War: Analysis

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The long-anticipated Iraq war eventually broke out with the US-led "coalition of the willing" attacking Iraq without a UN mandate and in the face of mounting anti-war protests around the world. Although the Bush administration has given a series of strongly argued grounds for starting the war, the real reasons behind it include eliminating so-called "security threats" in an preemptive way, maintaining the superpower status of the United States, ensuring oil supplies and attracting votes in coming presidential elections.

War has always been a highly destructive way to resolve conflicts, and causes huge human and material losses. Therefore, war is often the last choice when other options have been exhausted. However, at a time when hopes for a peaceful settlement of the Iraq crisis still existed and when the international community was trying hard to defuse the crisis, a few countries chose to launch the war in such a hurry to the detriment of the UN's authority and the stability of the world.

Bush: Attack on Iraq Intended to Eliminate Threat against Security

The US administration said that the main purpose of the attack on Iraq was to disarm Iraq and reduce the threat of international terrorism. On March 18, when issuing the ultimatum for Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and his sons to leave Iraq within 48 hours or face a US-led invasion, US President George W. Bush said,"The danger is clear: Using chemical, biological or, one day, nuclear weapons obtained with the help of Iraq, terrorists could fulfill their stated ambitions and kill thousands or hundreds of thousands of innocent people in our country or any other." According to Bush, this gave the United States the authority to foil such possible plots to launch terrorist attacks in an preemptive way.

But the international community is generally of the view that although the United States started the Iraq war in the name of anti-terrorism, there is not sufficient reason to support the unilateral US action.

Firstly, the US has not provided any hard evidence to prove that Iraq has collaborated with al-Qaeda, or was involved in the Sept. 11, 2001 attack on the US.

Secondly, a majority of countries do not believe Iraq now poses a military threat to the world. Chilean weekly El Siglo reported on March 12 that 80 percent of Iraq's military power had been destroyed in the 1991 Desert Storm operation against the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait, and that 90 percent of its remaining weaponry was removed through UN arms inspections. The report said neighboring countries have not felt threatened by Iraq since the Gulf War in 1991.

US Magazine: Toppling Saddam to Maintain US Superpower Status

Why did the US still decide to launch the war despite opposition from so many countries? According to opinions reported by Western media, behind the US rush to war against Iraq lie the imperatives of US global strategy. The United States wishes to emphasize its global strategy through regime change in Iraq

On January 16, the United States magazine, "Foreign Policy in Focus", featured a signed article entitled "The Coming War With Iraq: Deciphering the Bush Administration's Motives." In this article, author Michael T. Klare said he believed the answer to the Bush administration's determination to oust Saddam Hussein was a combination of factors related to the pursuit of oil and the preservation of America's status as the paramount world power. "Ever since the end of the Cold War, American policymakers (whether Demoract or Republican) have sought to preserve America's 'sole superpower' status and to prevent the rise of a 'peer competitor' that could challenge US paramountcy on anything approaching equal terms," the author said.

As envisaged by the Bush administration, Iraq under the leadership of Saddam Hussein was a potential threat to US national security. The United States has been trying crush the Saddam Hussein regime through economic blockade, but efforts to this effect proved largely futile.

Therefore, shortly after its war in Afghanistan, the United States, under the pretext of "fighting terrorism," shifted its troops to the Gulf region and eventually launched the war on Iraq, which Bush calls part of "the axis of evil."

Oil and Votes: Two Factors Fueling the War

Oil is another factor fueling the US rush to a war against Iraq.With demand for oil increasing yearly, the United States currently relies on imports for 55 percent of its oil needs.

It is quite clear that the energy requirements drive an important part of the US global strategy. The US ability to dominate world affairs would be greatly reduced if it fails to control the Middle East, whose oil reserves make up 65 percent of the world's total.

Some US strategists believe the country should lessen its dependence on Saudi oil in view of the anti-US sentiment there. The key to ensuring oil supplies to the United States thus lies in the establishment of a pro-US government in Iraq, which ranks second in the world in terms of oil reserves.

In addition, some international analysts pointed out that an Iraq war would also meet the political needs of the Bush administration at home.

Bush owed his victory in the 2000 presidential elections to some extent to support from US weapons manufacturers and oil companies. According to the Washington Post newspaper, an Iraq war could be related to Bush's reelection campaign.

Impact: Worrying Consequences of War

While the United States was stepping up its war preparations in the Gulf, the international community was making unremitting efforts to avert the war. Under pressure from peace-loving countries, the United States had reluctantly drafted a resolution on weapons inspection in Iraq and submitted it to the UN Security Council for adoption. Based on this draft resolution, the Security Council adopted Resolution 1441 on Nov. 11, 2002.

Over the past four months, UN weapons inspectors had continued inspections in Iraq and considered the process "fruitful" and "should be continued." However, the United States and Britain ignored the progress made in the inspections and submitted a new resolution to the UN Security Council asking for authority to disarm Iraq by force.

After the new pro-war resolution was rejected by the Security Council, the United States, in light of the adverse weather conditions in the Middle East and the staggering cost of stationing its troops overseas, dropped the first bombs on Iraq, starting a new war in the Gulf.

The war, which is drawing attention from all over the world, is certain to have a tremendous negative impact on the situation in the Gulf, the Middle East political landscape and the world order as a whole. (Xinhua News)

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