Russia Joins Franco-German Anti-war Camp: News Analysis

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Friday, February 14, 2003

Russia Joins Franco-German Anti-war Camp: News Analysis

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Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a three-day State visit to France from February 10-12. This is a special visit made at a special moment, during which Putin gave his special indication, therefore the visit has aroused special international concerns and yielded special influence.

Putin's trip to France was carried out at a time when the Iraq issue had reached a critical juncture. On the one hand, US President George W. Bush spread the word that "the game has ended", and the "diplomatic method has failed". British Prime Minister Tony Blair also insisted that now Iraq could be disarmed only through military means. On the other hand, France and Germany have formed an anti-war axis, they insist on opposing US unilateral launch of military attacks on Iraq and advocate that the work of the UN arms inspection group should be carried on.

Immediately after his arrival in Paris on the afternoon of February 10, Putin held talks with French President Jacques Chirac. That evening, the two presidents held a joint press conference in the Elysee Palace, at which Chirac read out the France-Germany-Russia joint statement. One paragraph of the statement reads: We believe that currently there exists a solution for replacing war, the use of force can only be the last resort, Russia, Germany and France are determined to provide all possibilities for disarming Iraq by peaceful means. At the time marking the 40th anniversary of the treaty of peace and friendship between France and Germany last month, the two countries had clearly expressed their anti-war stance on the issue of Iraq. They again coordinated their actions around the time when US Secretary of State Colin Powell made a report at the UN Security Council on February 5. During his visit to France, Putin openly expressed that Russia shares the views of France and Germany, at least in their current opposition to the adoption of any military actions against Iraq. Therefore, public opinion says that Russia's accession to the Franco-German anti-war axis is built on a solid basis.

It is necessary to make it clear that Russia has other considerations in joining the Franco-German anti-war axis. In French-Russian relations, the issue of Chechnya has always been an obstacle. After Chirac's visit to Soci in the Black Sea region of Russia last summer, French-Russian relations warmed up. Chirac explicitly instructed French diplomats that they should cease criticizing Russia for its war in Chechnya, hoping thereby to spur the development of economic, especially airspace, cooperation between the two countries. With regard to Putin's France visit this time, the French side made careful arrangements, avoiding the Chechnya issue.

In addition, the three-nation joint statement, in both content and wording, takes into consideration Russia's intention to maintain good relations with the United States. The French side assures Putin that the statement is not directed at the United States, but rather it is only a debate over what method should be adopted to disarm Iraq, the debate should be carried out in the spirit of friendship and respect. France and Germany first joined hands, followed by Russia's participation, Chirac stepped up the establishment of an anti-war axis. It can be said that this is a reaction to another voice of Europe. On January 30, Britain, Italy, Spain and five other European countries clearly indicated their support for US planned military attack on Iraq. On the very day of Putin's arrival in Paris, France, Germany and Belgium vetoed the American proposal on demanding NATO protection of Turkey. Apparently, the rift between America and Europe, among European countries and within NATO, and between the "faction for immediate war" and the "faction for continuing inspection" is widening.

However, whether or not the anti-war axis is rock-firm still needs to be analyzed. It should be noted that Russia's stand on the Iraq issue has delicate changes. At first Russia said although it had reservations about US stance, it would not use the veto power at the Security Council. During his visit to Italy on January 28, Putin said that if Iraq failed to properly coordinate with the inspection group, Russia would rectify its stand and turn around to the United States. After Powell delivered a report at the Security Council on February 5, Russia adopted an anti-war stand same to that of France and Germany. Someone says Putin is an ingenious diplomat, he wants both to get close to France and Germany, and not to get away from the United States. Russia's strategy is to ask a higher price from the United States and strike a deal on the issue of Chechnya and demand the share of a piece of cake in postwar reconstruction of Iraq. When the United States increases its pressure, Russia would most likely be the first to beat a retreat.

During the election campaign last year, German Chancellor Schroeder made this promise: Germany will not participate in possible military action against Iraq. Now he honors his promise, determinedly forges an anti-war axis together with France, but it is also faced with pressure. His opponent lashed out at him during last year's election campaign, charging that Schroeder was like an axe chopping the Atlantic alliance and the cross-Atlantic ties root and branch, damaging Germany's reputation and influence regained since World War II. Someone in the German media circle criticized that Schroeder was more absolute than France, because France did not rule out the use of force as the last resort.

Chirac forged an anti-war axis for the interests of France. In the opinion of France, America's planned attack on Iraq is for the purpose of petroleum. Historically, the Middle East was once Europe's sphere of influence, once the United States controls Mid-east oil, Europe would be brought under the control of others. Secondly, once a war breaks out, the economies of various European countries would be affected. When one presently adopts an anti-war stand, one would have a share of a piece of cake in reconstruction in the capacity of a middleman after war. In fact, France wants thereby to show its existence on the international stage and make its voice heard in the world. Such being the case, it is generally held that France will not confront the United States without hesitation to the very end.

Someone in the French media circle complains that France taking the lead in opposing the United States on the Iraq issue actually serves the interests of Russia and now is time for France to change its stance. Chirac says that France does not in the least query the joint relations on both shores of the Atlantic, it only expresses different views over an issue on the premise of similar morality and has controversy over what sort of means should be used to attain the common goal Are such circumstances a "hint foreshadowing later development" remains to be tested and verified in the future. In a recent editorial, the Figaro Le said that the present difference between France and the United States, or between Europe and America, was only a farce staged between allies. Some things in the world can be seen more clearly within the bastion. As to what dramatic change around the Iraq issue will take place in the future, let's wait and see.

By People's Daily Online

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