News Analysis: Franco-German Veto Puts NATO Future in Jeopardy

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Wednesday, February 12, 2003

News Analysis: Franco-German Veto Puts NATO Future in Jeopardy

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NATO's future as a collective military body seems to be in jeopardy after France, Germany and Belgium blocked on Monday an American proposal to start planning military assistance in the event of a possible US-led war against Iraq.

While ambassadors from the 19 allies are still struggling to find a way to overcome one of the worst crises in its 54-year-old history, NATO Secretary-General George Robertson has warned that the deadlock would bring about enormous consequences for the alliance.

"The longer this dispute goes on, the worse it is going to be for the alliance," he said.

The controversial proposal, which were formally put forward on Jan. 15, includes sending surveillance planes and Patriot missile systems to Turkey, intensifying naval patrols in the Mediterranean and an eventual role for NATO in humanitarian or peacekeeping operations in a postwar Iraq.

The plan has been vetoed by France, Germany and Belgium, who argue that it is too early to start the military planning while there is still hope of averting a war through diplomacy and the UN weapons inspections process.

In a bid to step up pressure to end the standoff, Robertson invoked a so-called "silent procedure" last Thursday, under which the American proposal would be approved automatically unless any of the allies raises an objection by 10 am (0900 GMT) Monday.

To the surprise of many people, France, Germany and Belgium broke the silence by the deadline, insisting that sending NATO military equipment to Turkey would imply that diplomatic efforts to disarm Iraq had already failed.

"What's at stake is whether or not we give a little more time to diplomacy and to a process, a UN resolution, that we all agreed to at the Security Council," said Benoit d'Aboville, French ambassador to NATO.

The veto has provoked a fiery response from Washington, which is particularly keen to persuade lingering Turkey to allow the use of its territory as a base to attack Iraq.

Warning against a European revolt, US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld had said any veto would be "a disgrace." US ambassador to NATO, Nicholas Burns, was more circumspect, saying the move was "an unfortunate decision" that threatened the credibility of the alliance.

The US-led Cold War institution, whose full name is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, was founded in 1949 to confront with the Soviet Union. The end of the Cold war more than 10 years ago, however, leaves NATO more and more uncertain about what its future role should be.

NATO's military role is decreasing as the United States increasingly looks to build a tailor-made coalition for conflicts rather than relies on NATO, where military capabilities of other members are far less than that of the United States. Washington could still bypass NATO in the possible war against Iraq, just like what it did in Afghanistan, but it still needs NATO's political support that is now devoid of in the UN Security Council.

France and Germany, the most influential countries on the European continent, however refused to follow the American suit this time. They see that Washington is trying to make NATO a tool for the military buildup for war in Iraq and they don't want to go along with it.

Many analysts warned that the rift among NATO members is making the alliance on the sidelines. It is likely that the United States and other pro-war nations will provide military help to Turkey individually. "The US and the other alliance members would proceed with planning outside of NATO if necessary," said Rumsfeld.

Just two months ago, NATO leaders at a summit in Prague, the Czech Republic, proclaimed the Cold War alliance was reinventing itself to tackle modern threats from terrorism and rogue states.

It seems that the transatlantic dispute on how to handle the Iraqi crisis would make the reinvention more difficult than expected, analysts say.

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