Roundup: Blair Embarks on Battles for Second Resolution on Iraq

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Tuesday, February 04, 2003

Roundup: Blair Embarks on Battles for Second Resolution on Iraq

Amid speculations that the United States will go to war with Iraq within the next two months, British Prime Minister Tony Blair has made intense diplomatic efforts for a second UN resolution authorizing the use of force todisarm Iraq.

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Blair: Confident of winning a second UN resolution

Blair, who flew Friday to the United States for a summit on Iraq with US President George W. Bush, said Saturday that he was confident of winning further UN support following up resolution 1441 and that he was in "no doubt at all" that the US leader also welcomes a second UN resolution.

Bush, who insisted that Iraq has to be disarmed by force if necessary, has stated that it would be "weeks, not months" before the Iraq crisis comes to a head, which local media interpreted as a hint of a coming military action in March.

For Blair, the staunchest US ally on its tough line on Iraq, who is conscious of rising public opposition to war, to join a US-led war with Iraq without UN backing might split his Labor Party and possibly bring him political disaster, reports here said.

Therefore, before the shooting starts, Blair has to embark on apropaganda and diplomatic offensive to ensure that the UN SecurityCouncil sanctions a military strike against Iraq before Bush losespatience and goes to war unilaterally.

Blair to try to persuade France into war against Iraq

As nine of 15 votes on the Security Council are needed to get aresolution passed, with no veto from any of the five permanent members -- the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia --the first task for Blair would be to tackle French President Jacques Chirac at a Tuesday summit at Le Touquet, a beach resort in northern France.

France has said that a war against Iraq could take place only under UN authority.

Although the British government is increasingly confident that France, which has a veto in the Security Council, would eventuallythrow its weight behind a second UN Security Council resolution, analysts here said the French decision on Iraq still remains an uncertainty for Blair, if not a nightmare.

Blair and Bush's tough line on Iraq has been criticized by France and Germany, who have clearly expressed their objection to a war with Iraq without further UN approval.

France was snubbed Thursday after Britain, together with seven other European leaders, signed an open letter urging unity behind the United States in the crisis over Iraq, without noticing Franceand Germany.

At his talks with Chirac, Blair would try to persuade the French leader to accept military action if Saddam does not disarm,hoping that France and other anti-war countries would be swayed when US Secretary of State Colin Powell briefs the Security Council on Wednesday with US intelligence purportedly showing evidence that Iraq is hiding banned weapons.

France would need a lot of persuading, sources from the BritishForeign Office were quoted as saying. The Downing Street did not expect Chirac to sign up to military action immediately after his summit with Blair.

Chirac would want to await the second report by the chief UN arms inspector, Hans Blix, to the Security Council on Feb. 14, thesources said.

France is not the only veto-wielding member of the UN Security Council who needs convincing. Russia also demands "undeniable proof" of Iraq's transgressions.

Middle East countries deeply concerned

Countries in the volatile Middle East are also deeply concerned.Both Iran and Syria oppose Saddam's removal by an American-led invasion force.

As part of a coalition-building for the looming war against Iraq, Blair was expected to meet visiting Iranian Foreign MinisterKamal Kharrazi this coming Thursday, reports said.

Although Blair has helped to forge a British-Spainish-Italian coalition in support of US as a counterweight to the more skeptical approach of Germany and France, a war against Iraq stillneeds to swing behind the US as many as Iraq's neighbors possible,reports said.

Analysts said although Britain repeated its confidence that an international coalition would emerge, the political stakes still remain high for Blair.

If the inspectors come up with convincing evidence on Feb. 14, many of the objections to US-led action might fall away. But if the Feb. 14 report still fails to prove Saddam is in material breach of the UN resolution, the diplomatic battle would intensify.

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