A 'Gray Report': News Analysis

Home>>Opinion

Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Thursday, January 30, 2003

A 'Gray Report': News Analysis

DISCUSSION

CHINESE

SEND TO FRIEND

At 10:30 on the morning of January 27, a UN Security Council open conference began on the issue of weapon inspection of Iraq, the UN chief inspector Hans Blix and IAEA Director-general Muhammed el Baradei delivered a report respectively. The reports of Blix and others were made in accordance with the Resolution 1441 passed by the Security Council in November last year. The resolution requires that the inspectors should submit a report within 60 days after the inspection work started in Iraq on November 27.

On the afternoon of that same day, representatives of 15 countries of the Security Council began discussing this report behind closed door. Sources said the representatives raised many detailed questions, which were answered by Blix and Baradei one by one. According to the arrangements of the agenda, on January 29, the Security Council had to hold a conference for discussion again, so as to make assessment of the report. Due to difference in the attitudes of various parties, it may be hard for the Security Council to come to a uniform conclusion.

Viewed from the reports of Blix and Baradei, the most important point is that no conclusive evidence showing Iraq's possession of weapons of mass destruction has been found. However, they have said that Iraq has provided "helpful" cooperation, at the same time, they have also clearly indicated that it seems to this date Iraq has not really accepted the disarming requirement. Iraq has not made explanations on some major omission questions and is still setting up some restricts on inspection.

Blix is obviously clear about his own responsibility, that is to truthfully report to the Security Council the inspection situation, and the Security Council will determine whether Iraq has made "substantive violation" of the Security Council Resolution. Viewed from the concrete content, Blix's report has indeed provided the United States and Britain some evidence for winning over opinion support. In general, the keynote of his report is that "Iraq still needs to double its efforts".

As a matter of fact, before this report meeting of world concerns, public opinions of various quarters had estimated that it was impossible to draw a final conclusion concerning whether Iraq has violated the Security Council Resolution in only 60 days of inspection. A report of the Washington Post says that the report of Blix and Baradei would not made a "black or white" final conclusion, but rather it would be a "grey report" containing both positive and negative information. Precisely because of this characteristic of the report, the understandings and explanations of various quarters are enormously different, and their points of emphasis are not the same.

According to the explanations of the United States and Britain, Iraq has not made it clear that there exist some serious loopholes in the 12,000-pages report on weapons it submitted to the United Nations, for instance, records on nerve gas and anthrax scares are inconsistent with the original facts. But Russia, China, France and the majority of Security Council member states maintain that it is not time yet to ascertain that whether Iraq has made "substantive violation" of the Security Council Resolution, the only choice is to give the inspectors more time. On the morning of January 27, UN Secretary-general Kofi Annan also issued the same appeal before attending the conference. Quite a number of countries also expressed the view that an opportunity should be given to peace, and it is still possible to avert a war if Iraq can continue its effort to cooperate with the inspectors. Meanwhile, many countries insist that any use of force against Iraq must be authorized by the Security Council.

Some UN sources point out that judged by the present situation, war seems still developing in the direction of inevitability. Blix's January 27 report has not changed this direction of development. On the one hand, the United States and Britain have stepped up assembling of forces and have prepared to start war at any time; on the other hand, it is still quite difficult for Iraq to take greater initiative in cooperation. Iraqi Ambassador to the United Nations has made it clear that they have conducted "full cooperation" with the inspectors, since no weapons of mass destruction have been found out, inspection should be concluded. Even though the Security Council discussion may result in a temporary agreement made by the United States and Britain on prolonging the inspection time in compliance with the demand of most Security Council member states, the two countries will continue to mass forces, apply pressure and intensify their efforts to win over opinion support. War may still break out at any time.

It is noteworthy that on January 9, Blix's preliminary report pointed out that Iraq had not taken the initiative in cooperation, it is still impossible to exclude doubt about whether Iraq possesses weapons of mass destruction. His January 27 report has added to this doubt. For instance, the report states that Iraq has trial fired two new missiles, the range of these two guided missiles has exceeded UN prescribed limit. Blix said that the range of one of the missiles was greater than what was originally thought. In addition, a 3,000-page secret document was discovered in a residence of Iraqi scientists; and 12 unreported empty chemical weapon warheads were ferreted out; Iraqi scientists refused to accept being queried individually; the quantity of VX nerve toxic agents trial produced by Iraq was much more than declared; the number of chemical bombs dropped by Iraqi air force during the 1983-88 war between Iraq and Iran was 6,500 less than that Iraq produced in the same period. How will Iraq answer these questions will be the focus to the concern of various quarters.

In accordance with the Security Council's requirement, the inspectors still have to submit another report on the inspection situation in mid-February and on March 27. The American resident representative to the United Nations indicated on January 27 that Iraq's behavior in the last 80 days demonstrated that it had failed to abide by the Security Council Resolution. Iraq remains as before, the United States is worried that the Security Council would also stick to its original attitude. The spokesperson for the Bush administration clearly pointed out the statement on weapon submitted by Iraq had "actually" violated the Security Council Resolution. Analysts maintain that if there is no change in the inspectors' appraisal of Iraq and if Iraq fails to give full explanations on the above-said questions when the set date comes, then even no weapons of mass destruction are found, the United States and Britain still can affirm by themselves that Iraq had "substantively violated" the Security Council Resolution and then start war against Iraq.

What America and Britain are facing is still an old problem, i.e., how to win over support from more countries, so that international and domestic opinions are convinced that Saddam fails to "wholeheartedly" cooperate with the United Nations, has not revealed his real intention, is unwilling to "be disarmed" and continues to constitute a serious threat. To achieve this end, the United States and Britain not only need to present more pieces of evidence, and also need to launch an offensive of a larger scale, otherwise they can only take the step of "using force by themselves".

For many days, US media have substantially increased reports and discussions on the Iraq issue. America and Britain threatened they would produce more pieces of evidence. On January 31, Bush will hold talks with Tony Blair. A report of the Washington Post says it is the view of the Bush administration that the last week of January is the time for determining whether there has been sufficient evidence and making the decision on starting war.

Questions?Comments? Click here

China Stands for Continued Inspection, More Active Cooperation from Iraq

War on Iraq will Open Pandora's Box in Mideast: Chinese Analysts

Hoping for Peace in Iraq: Chinese Students

>> Full Coverage

Beijing to Cancel 'Hotels for Hosting Foreign Visitors' ( 11 Messages)

Crazy Pursuit for Graduate Education, an Ailing Personnel System ( 2 Messages)

Chinese Experts Demand Return of Cultural Relics ( 30 Messages)

Chinese Bid Farewell to Outworn Doctrine of Egalitarianism ( 22 Messages)

Full Text of UN Security Council Resolution 1441 on Iraq ( 3 Messages)