China's GDP to Grow 8 Percent in 2003: Economists

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Thursday, January 02, 2003

China's GDP to Grow 8 Percent in 2003: Economists

China's gross domestic product can rise by more than 8 per cent over the next 12 months, economists have predicted.

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China's gross domestic product can rise by more than 8 per cent over the next 12 months, economists have predicted.

Their optimistic forecast, ranging from 7.9 per cent to 8.2 per cent, is based on a consensus among officials and experts that the nation's external and internal environment in relation to economic development is "positive,'' Xinhua reported Wednesday.

As for the external environment, an analysis by the International Monetary Fund said the world economy, in general, will recover to a certain degree and should hit an annual increase of 3.7 per cent. The increase for 2002 was 2.8 per cent.

Observers insist the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will give new momentum to the country's economic development this year.

In addition, more than two decades of reform, especially with the implementation of an active fiscal policy in the past five years, has laid a solid foundation for infrastructure facilities, human resources and capital reserves to further develop, said Zheng Jingping, a leading official with the National Bureau of Statistics.

And an official with the State Development Planning Commission predicted investment, consumption and exports -- the three major forces behind the fast economic development of China last year -- will continue to give impetus in 2003.

An unnamed expert with the Development Research Centre under the State Council said investment in fixed assets by Chinese people will increase at a rate "slightly'' higher than that of last year.

He said China's economic growth will move into a new phase when it is promoted by intrinsic market forces, instead of just the active fiscal policy of the government.

Consumption is expected to increase by 10 per cent this year with communication products, vehicles and housing to remain as the leading attractions.

The expert said the increase should be attributed to the efforts of the central government, which vowed to make "increasing the income of farmers and employment opportunities and enhancing social security'' one of its priorities this year.

The growth of exports in 2003 will stay around 10 per cent.

However, experts urged related government departments to improve the country's competitive edge in exports to keep its advantageous position in the world market.

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