UN Arms Inspectors Face Tricky Task in Iraq: Analysis

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Wednesday, November 20, 2002

UN Arms Inspectors Face Tricky Task in Iraq: Analysis

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Chief United Nations weapons inspector Hans Blix and his advance team arrived in the Iraqi capital Baghdad on Monday, marking the significant return of UN weapons inspectors to Iraq after an absence of four years. In what is a "do-or-die" disarmament process for Iraq, the inspection is set to be an arduous task.

Upon arriving at the Saddam International Airport, Blix told reporters that the inspection mission is a "new opportunity," in the interests of both Iraq and the world, to defuse the "tense situation."

"I hope we'll take the opportunity together," said Blix, who was accompanied by Mohamed El Baradei, the Egyptian director of the International Atomic Energy Agency based in the Austrian capital Vienna.

Blix, a 74-year-old Swede, is head of the New York-based UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), which will search for biological and chemical weapons and long-range missiles, in accordance with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1441, which was adopted on November 8 and sets a strict timetable for the inspection.

El Baradei's agency will determine if Iraq has a secret programme to develop nuclear arms.

There is a strict timetable for the inspection, which involves complicated work, great responsibility and considerable difficulties. Many analysts believe therefore that the inspection will be a severe test for both the Iraqi Government and the inspectors.

This arms inspection has set an unchangeable timetable. Under Resolution 1441, Iraq has to submit within 30 days a declaration of all its programmes and any material that can be used to develop weapons of mass destruction.

Blix has said the time left for Iraq is very short and harsh, while the United States insists on a rapid disarmament process.

If Iraq fails to hand in a "full, accurate and complete" declaration by the deadline of December 8 or if the declaration does not satisfy the relevant parties, especially the United States, the use of force against Iraq would seem to be inevitable.

The inspection will also cover a wide range of places and items although the time for the mission is very limited.

There are reportedly more than 700 suspicious sites targeted for inspection throughout Iraq, including Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's presidential palaces and government installations.

Inspectors may also take samples of soil, water and air for analysis and may take some Iraqi insiders and their relatives abroad for further interrogation.

Under Resolution 1441, the UN commission will formally start its mission on November 27 and will report its findings back to the UN Security Council within 60 days after that date.

A final decision on Iraq based on the findings in the inspection will be decisive to whether there will be peace or war in Iraq following the inspection.

The inspectors may face the dilemma of having to judge whether a particular Iraqi response is an unintended error or intentional obstruction.

Despite Iraq's promise to comply with the UN resolution unconditionally, the inspection will inevitably involve such sensitive issues as national sovereignty and even national dignity. Therefore, judging the extent of Iraq co-operation or attitude will be a rather subtle question to resolve.

Blix has said that inspectors will have immediate and unrestricted access to all suspected places, even without informing Iraq beforehand. A half-hour delay on the part of Iraq could be viewed as a violation of the Security Council resolution.

Also, the inspection team can declare at any time that a certain area be a forbidden zone inaccessible to Iraqis - an unprecedentedly harsh sanction for Iraq.

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