Eight Opportunities before China Within Upcoming 20 Years

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Wednesday, November 20, 2002

Eight Opportunities before China Within Upcoming 20 Years

From the mid-18th century till late 1970s when China started its opening-up and reform proceedings, China had more than once touched the chances for a modernization, but eventually they all slipped away by the finger tips. Now they appear again.

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China is now facing eight strategic opportunities, which, if fully tapped, will greatly boost its modernization drive, according to the Beijing-based weekly Outlook.

From the mid-18th century till late 1970s when China started its opening-up and reform proceedings, China had more than once touched such chances, but eventually they all slipped away by the finger tips.

Now they appear again.

I A long and tranquil period for economic build-up

One important reason for the big economic success of China in the past two decades is due to the country's peace-oriented foreign policies, said the magazine sponsored by the Xinhua News Agency.

"Within quite a long time period, the world will maintain its present pattern of 'one superpower plus few stronger' and see no substantial reshuffles, despite the increasing uncertainties," Ruan Zongze, deputy director of the China Institute of International Studies, was quoted as saying by the magazine.

Except the Taiwan Issue, there are hardly any other happenings likely getting China involved into war and interrupting its sustained economic growth, Ruan said.

The relations between China and its neighboring countries are further improving, with an emphasis on economic cooperation.

The undertaking to launch the free trade zone between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) is going well. The Asean members have seen that China's development will bring them chances rather than menaces, and that the free trade zone will create a win-win result for all participants.

"All these have formed a very favorable condition for China to take care of its economic development attentively," Ruan said.

II A period to cut a niche in the changing world

The uncheckable waves of economic globalization and political multi-polarization are re-picturing the world landscape, said the magazine.

The globalization has induced a time to reshuffle the national strength of the world powers, triggering an opportunity to shape a multi-polarized world.

China has, in the just-ended 16th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, set to quadruple its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2020.

By then, China will, with a per capita GDP of US$ 3,000, rank third in the world in terms of its GDP size, a true economic power.

For this target, China only needs to maintain an annual GDP growth rate of around 7.2 percent.

Since China started its opening-up and reform in 1978, it has sustained an on average around 9 percent growth rate per year.

Experts widely agree that China can maintain a 7 to 8 percent GDP growth for another 20 or even 40 years.

III A time for sci-tech "frog-leap"

To a great extent, China's postponed participation in the world modernization process can be traced to its miss with the two industrial revolutions in the 1760s and 1870s.

But now, sweeping across the world is another wave of hi-tech revolution and the accompanying far-reaching transformation of the world industrial and economic structures.

Although relatively backward in many aspects, China also has got the latecomer's advantages, according to the magazine.

"China can surely make its hi-tech 'three-step-jump', as long as it can choose some right fields and make breakthrough," Wang Wenyuan, vice-chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, was quoted as saying.

According to Wang, the target sci-tech fields for China should be those in which China has clinched some superiority and through which other fields will have the chain-reaction and advance in tandem with the targeted fields' progress, for example the information technology, science of new materials and biology.

IV A chance for industrial structure upgrade

One necessary consequent of the on-going globalization is a world-wide industrial restructuring, which will result in a re-allocation of the global resources among all involved in terms of their respective comparative advantages.

"So far, nearly all developed countries are re-organizing their industrial matrix, wrestling with each other for an upper hand in the course of industrial exporting," Bi Jiyao, an economist with the Institute of Macroeconomic Research under the State Development Planning Commission, was quoted as saying.

"When they transfer their traditional manufacturing sectors to developing countries, China will see its chance."

China now is widely thought of as a competitive candidate as another world manufacturing center following the post-industrialization-revolution Britain.

V Embrace the world with WTO

China's access to the World Trade Organization (WTO) has undoubtedly brought a good timing for China to participate in the global economic cooperation and competition.

Generally, when an underdeveloped country begins to merge into the world economy, it usually has three assets: first, the opening-up of its labor, products and financial markets; second, the further developed human resources, for example the training and education of the labor forces; third, the overall marketization of the economy.

China is obviously on the track now.

VI A chance to break the bottleneck of the on-going economic reform

With more than 20 years of market-oriented reform, China has made considerable progress in developing its economy and bettering Chinese people's life. But some deep-seated problems in its economic and political institutions have yet to be resolved.

To some degree, the further progress of China's reform is up to not the bits-and-ends tinkering any more, but some substantial institutional innovations.

There are three bottlenecks to be broken now in China, according to Chang Xiuze, another economist with the State Development Planning Commission.

First, China must find ways for such chronic problems as the inefficient State-owned firms, the fragile social security network, the enlarging disparity between the poor and rich, the lethargic banking sector, and the messy capital market.

Second, now that the on-going reform is started and pushed by the Party and the government, how can the Party and the government motivate themselves strongly enough to sustain the reforming momentum and meanwhile balance well between reform and anti-corruption?

Third, how to cope with the uncertainties with the rapidly changing world economic and political situation and at the same time sail through the out-rolling domestic social transition.

VII An opportunity to find a place for its big population

For a time, how to feed the 1.3 billion population seems to be the backbreaking burden upon the Chinese Government. It has even been fingered sometimes as one of, if not the only, crucial reasons for China's poverty and backwardness.

Now, the big population is forming a huge market, not only sustaining China's growth but also driving the world economy.

The key for China to maintain the steam of the market is education and training of its population, said Wang Wenyuan.

"If well done, the 1.3 billion people will be one of China's inexhaustible resources," he said

VIII A time to revive Chinese culture in the world

The "September 11" tragedy in the United States results in not merely a world wide campaign against terrorism, but also a deeper understanding of the cultural difference among nations.

People have come to realize that out of the cultural difference, they should forge cooperation and development rather discordance or clash.

"The 21st century should be a time for different cultures to seek the mutual complementation and the joint development rather than for one to wipe out or replace the other," Chen Dezhao, a research fellow at the China Institute for International Studies, was quoted as saying.

"In this trend, Chinese culture, for its long history, abundant depository and the peace-and-tolerance-centered spirit, will revive to another culmination."

By PD Online staff Forest Lee

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