Can Weapon Inspection Avoid the Outbreak of War?

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Tuesday, November 19, 2002

Can Weapon Inspection Avoid the Outbreak of War?

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Chief of the UN inspectors Hans Blix will arrive in Baghdad on November 18. The international community is concerned with the resumption of weapon inspection in Iraq after an interval of nearly four years, this is because it directly bears on whether or not the United States, Britain and other countries will wage war against Iraq.

In weapon inspection in Iraq, besides the question of whether or not Iraq possesses weapons of mass destruction, which is an objective existence, Iraq's cooperative attitude toward the weapon inspection team and whether or the UN weapon inspection team's work in Iraq is fair is a question of great elasticity and is most liable to trigger controversy.

Experts on international studies believe that President Saddam Hussein, who had all along taken an intransigent attitude, was compelled to agreed to the strongly worded and harsh Resolution under the almost unanimous pressures from the international community and the Arab world, but he did so with reluctance and for face-saving, so he made this choice against his will. The fact that he was forced to accept the Security Council resolution was merely an attempt to stave off imminent attack The forces of some Security Council members and the Arab world, which advocate solving the Iraqi crisis peacefully, have temporarily smothered the cries for war, thus at least winning time for him. In the past, the international community slapped quite a lot of charges against Iraq for its not cooperative attitude toward weapon inspection, of course, Baghdad also had its own saying. At any rate, the question regarding whether or not Iraq produces or possesses any new biological, chemical or atomic weapons can only be ascertained through weapon inspection.

The international community originally did not have much doubt about President Saddam's acceptance of the Security Council Resolution 1441. But in only one more days after the Iraqi National Assembly which has no actual power unanimously proposed that the government reject the UN Resolution and about two days before the deadline was due on November 15, Iraqi ambassador to the United Nations suddenly submitted a letter declaring Iraq's attitude to the United Nations, this was not only out of people's expectations, but also caused them to have some worries.

It is reported that Iraq's Arabic letter to the United Nations signed by Foreign Minister Naji Sabri runs as long as nine pages, which quotes related chapters and sections from the Koran, there are only several lines indicating that the Iraqi government had been prepared to implement the Resolution, furthermore, from beginning to end the letter does not clearly use the term "acceptance". But Iraq's acceptance of the weapon inspection team is in itself an undeniable fact. So it is appropriate to say that Iraq has "ambiguously" accepted the UN Resolution.

Historically, the UN weapon inspection team had also been much reproached for failing to live up to fairness. During his short stay in Paris, Blix indicated that the first batch of weapon inspectors were expected to arrive in Iraq on November 26 and would start inspection work the following day. Because in his opinion, one day delayed would cause the happening of more unforeseen events. Regarding the composition of the inspection team members, Blix stressed that "there are more than 200 trained weapon inspectors. Among all inspectors sent to Iraq most are Americans, but they number only a bit over 30; second comes the French; and the third Russians. Our inspectors come from 45 countries. This inspection team, like other UN organizations, represents different regions".

Regarding the question whether the inspection team is biased and whether it will take provocative action, a question of concern to the international community, this chief of the UN inspectors clearly indicated that this inspection team four years thereafter will be fair and neutral, and the inspectors will be strictly unbiased. The present weapon inspection team is a true UN agency accountable to the Security Council. It will not make judgment on whether Iraq abides by the UN Resolution, but rather it will only report the investigation result to the Security Council.

Blix specially indicated to the French Foreign Minister that what he needs is an effective, not provocative, weapon inspection. He admitted that the weapon inspection team members in Iraq four years ago had too close relations with intelligence departments and Western countries. Now he dare not guarantee that there are absolutely no agents among the members, adding that all intelligent agents would be ordered to leave the inspection team. Blix hoped that Iraq would give all-round cooperation, and believes that war is not unavoidable; but he also warns Baghdad that if Iraq attempts to obstruct weapon inspection work or delay weapon inspection even for half an hour, it will produce serious consequences.

Judged from the present situation, things look better than four years ago. Although Iraq accepts the Security Council Resolution with reluctance, it hopes to avoid coming under attack, indicates that it is guiltless, it even clearly expresses its demand that the United Nations lift its sanctions imposed on Iraq since 1991. The UN weapon inspection team also clearly expresses its attitude that it is a just and legal executive. But in the international community, the fact that some countries or some people who go back on their words is not rare. Such being the case, whether or not the weapon inspection team can avoid war after its entry into Iraq entirely depends on the attitudes of the parties concerned and the result of inspection.

International analysts point out that although Iraq has repeatedly declared that it does not produce or possess any new biological, chemical and atomic weapons, this, however, does not count. According to Resolution 1441, Baghdad shall make clear the real situation regarding its plan for weaponry development before the deadline on December 8, and submit a detailed list on the development of weapons of mass destruction. Blix said actually the date, December 8, was more sensitive and crucial. Because by the time, what Baghdad will say about this is still unknown at the moment. In addition, according to US President George W. Bush's policy on disarming Iraq, it has now reached the extent of "zero tolerance". That is to say, any deceptive Iraqi action would lead to direct serious consequence. While the international community has initially achieved its aim in its painstaking efforts to avert the outbreak of war as far as possible by letting the UN weapon inspectors enter Iraq first and allowing inspection fact to speak for itself.

As to the question whether Saddam's re-election as president of Iraq represents the will of the Iraqi people, the international community naturally has the public opinion. Countries in the Middle East region know most clearly whether Saddam enjoys a reputation and whether he himself is welcomed in the said region. As things now reveal how the Iraqi crisis is solved depends, to a great extent, on the Iraqi leaders. Zhang Yishan, this month's Security Council president, acting Chinese permanent representative to the United Nations, indicated that the Security Council will try its best to guarantee the all-round and effective implementation of Resolution 1441. A convincing reason should invariably be produced irrespective of whether the United States wants to go to war, or whether Iraq wants to avoid being beaten.

By People's Daily Online

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