Statistics Official on Connotation of 'Quadrupling GDP by 2020'

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Tuesday, November 12, 2002

Statistics Official on Connotation of 'Quadrupling GDP by 2020'

Twenty years on, Jiang Zemin's report to the 16th Party congress puts forward yet another goal, that of building a well-off society in an all-round way by the year 2020, when the country's GDP is expected to quadruple the 2000 figure.

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On the basis of an optimization of structure and improved benefits, China will quadruple its 2000 GDP by 2020, said report from the ongoing CPC 16th Party Congress. China's GDP will accordingly reach over 35 trillion yuan (calculated on 2000 price level) by 2020 and in future 20 years the country will keep a 7.18 percent growth rate, said Xu Xianchun, director of the Department of National Accounts with the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Viewing from a historical angle, Japan and the "four Asian tigers"-Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea-all once experienced a high-speed growth period around 20 years, and then suffered unexceptional economic slowdown. In past 20 years China has been keeping a growth rate over 9 percent, and will it also be similarly put in a fix?

Xu said the cases of economic slowdown for Japan and the "four Asian tigers" are different. Japan's economy, after high-speed development, has become sluggish, especially during the 1990s. While the "tigers", after a high-speed period, still keep a growth rate that can not be called low except for the Asian crisis period.

China is different from Japan, for there exist huge gaps between the development level of China's urban and rural areas, as well as the eastern and western regions. Take the year 2001 for example, the economic aggregate of first-place Guangdong Province surpassed 1 trillion yuan, while that of Tibet, as one ranking last, was only 13.9 billion yuan.

The nation's urbanization level stays low, with rural population taking the vast majority of national total. The per capita GDP is still low, with that of 2000 equivalent to only 2.3 percent of that of Japan in the same year. These are big problems facing China, but also provide big potential for further development of the country's economy.

China has built a fairly strong material base through past 20 years' reform and opening up, and the nation is of vast market potential and demand, Xu said. Its WTO accession brings more opportunities and new breakthroughs and deepening of reform will serve as a more powerful engine for China's economic development. All these factors decide that China is able to maintain a fairly high growth rate and it is quite hopeful for the country to reach its goal.

By PD Online Staff Li Heng

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