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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Monday, November 11, 2002

New UN Resolution Puts Iraq in a Fix: News Analysis

The Security Council of the United Nations unanimously passed on November 8 the Resolution 1441 on weapon inspection in Iraq. This new resolution makes Iraq find itself really in a dilemma. Analysts hold that more and more signs have indicated that it is quite possible for Iraq to finally accept the new resolution of the Security Council; but whether or not a war against Iraq can be avoided still needs further observation.


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The Security Council of the United Nations unanimously passed on November 8 the Resolution 1441 on weapon inspection in Iraq. This new resolution makes Iraq find itself really in a dilemma. Up to November 9 Baghdad satellite TV station still thought that the draft resolution adopted by the Security Council was a result of US blackmail, Iraqi official news agency also claimed that the draft resolution was unfair. However, making a final decision before November 15 is unavoidable in any way.

In fact, Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri Ahmed indicated in Cairo that the adoption of the draft resolution demonstrated that US attempt to use force against Iraq had suffered setbacks, showing that the international community will not identify the US government's "evil desire for aggression, massacre and destruction". But reports said even Sabri himself had to admit that the presently adopted draft resolution won through the efforts of the international community had partial positive role, because it reflects the idea that "the pressing task at the moment is to allow the UN weapon inspectors to return to Iraq as soon as possible".

Analysts hold that more and more signs have indicated that it is quite possible for Iraq to finally accept the new resolution of the Security Council; but whether or not a war against Iraq can be avoided still needs further observation.

On November 10, the Arab Union held an emergency conference of foreign ministers from Arab countries in its Cairo headquarters. The final communique released that night requires that the Security Council fulfill its promise, that is that it will not use the Resolution 1441 adopted as an excuse for attacking Iraq and instead it will continue to cooperate with Iraq, and appeals that the UN weapon inspection group will refrain from taking deliberate, provocative, vicious actions in the process of inspection.

This indicates that Iraq sustained enormous pressures from Arab countries at the foreign ministers emergency conference of the Arab Union, and it is hoped that Baghdad would accept the Resolution 1441 passed through all votes by the Security Council on November 8, so as to avoid military attacks on Iraq that would possibly bring serious influence on the entire Middle East region.

The emergency conference of foreign ministers from Arab countries was first announced on November 3 by the Arab Union headquarters. The statement published by the Arab Union headquarters originally declared that the conference would focus the discussion on US-Iraqi relationship that was becoming increasing intense, as well as on the Middle East situation "under the prospect of an ultra-rightist government to be formed in Israel".

However, due to the fact that Israel decided to conduct the general election ahead of schedule and the UN Security Council passed a new resolution on Iraq after eight-week negotiations, therefore, the focus of the emergency conference was by and large concentrated on the Iraq issue. Of course, the communique of the foreign ministers conference also requires that the international community should implement all UN resolutions on the question of Palestine, and that resolute measures should also be taken to deal with Israel's possession of weapons of mass destruction.

In fact, for a period of time, the center of attention of international opinions has all along been on the Iraqi crisis. The United States is dead set on overthrowing the Saddam region; Britain stresses that Iraq must destroy its arms of mass destruction. The two countries have so far been making active preparations for fighting against Iraq.

Whereas most countries of the international community, including Arab countries, are striving to appeal to and persuade Iraq to carry out related UN resolutions to the letter and unconditionally accept weapon inspection, thereby averting a war in the Middle East region as far as possible, and to striving for termination and final removal of the 12-year-long international sanctions against Iraq.

It should be admitted that the current Iraqi crisis is still faced with a grim situation and the dark clouds of war are quite thick. According to the latest reports from the New York Times and Washington Post, President George W. Bush has adopted the plan for battle against Iraq when necessary. Under the battle plan, as many as 250,000 troops will be moved and the first action taken will be air raid. If US troops gain initial success in other parts of Iraq and President Saddam is forced out of office, then US troops will not enter Baghdad. The US side estimates that the time taken for the entire campaign will not exceed 43 days, and will be shorter than the 1991 Gulf War. Reports say the US troops have got everything ready for quick actions, only awaiting order to be issued by President Bush.

Although the Security Council Resolution 1441 does not include the content concerning possible automatic use of force against Iraq, this is already crystal clear from the phrase "the most serious consequence" which was told to President Saddam.

In the words of Kofi Annan, secretary-general of the United Nations, the present situation regarding the Iraqi crisis is that the new resolution explains in detail the obligations Iraq should perform, if Iraq continues to despise the Security Council resolutions, then the Security Council must positively undertake the responsibility it should perform; and using the words of President Bush, Iraq must immediately and unconditionally disarm itself, otherwise the United States and other countries will take away its arms.

In a word, Iraq presently still has the "last opportunity" for averting the outbreak of war; and the international community is also making final efforts for this end. The emergency conference of Arab foreign ministers represented the final efforts made by the Arab side.

Frankly speaking, although the ideas and motives of the Arab countries which demand Iraq to accept the new Security Council resolution are not completely the same, they are completely identical on the point of avoiding a disastrous war to be broken out in the Middle East region.

It is disclosed that after the adoption of the new Security Council resolution, US Secretary of State Colin Powell had phone conversations with his counterparts of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, expressing the hope that they could apply pressures against Iraq, and urge Baghdad to observe the Security Council resolution; other Arab countries also favor doing work on Iraq.

In fact, foreign ministers and foreign secretaries of many Arab countries have since November 9 begun gathering in Egypt's Cairo for bilateral and multilateral consultations and meetings. The consensus reached by Arab countries was that Iraq should accept the "positive" draft resolution to protect Iraq and the entire Middle East region from US attacks and destruction. Because the eruption of war in the Middle East would cause turbulence and chaos in the regional situation, and inflict attacks and harms on all Arab countries.

As far as some Arab countries with good relations with the United States are concerned, asking Iraq to accept the Security Council resolution conforms to the wishes of various parties and can bring closer relations with the United States as well. Once war was to be broken out against Iraq, it would likely whip up a domestic anti-US wave and would conversely affect their good diplomatic ties with the United States.

As to some Arab countries regarded as pursuing a harder line, on the one hand, it is not that they do not want to develop ties with the United States, on the other hand, persuasion of Iraq to avoid the outbreak of a war against Iraq is in the interest of the country and nation. Now the representative of the only Arab country among the UN Security Council members--Syria, before casting his vote for, had conducted high-level consultations with the United States, France and Russia, and gained the promise that the Security Council resolution would not be used as an excuse for attack on Iraq; and Syria also maintained that the resolution does not involve the content of possible attack on Iraq by any country. In addition, Syria emphasized that it voted in favor of the resolution was aimed at rescuing Iraq, so as to prevent it from military attack. Because a war against Iraq would only benefit Israel and the enemy of Arab countries.

Of course, currently some Arab countries still have doubts and misgivings about the United States and the already adopted Security Council resolution, particularly about America's real intentions. They are worried that there is still possibility for the outbreak of war.

A Lebanon newspaper expressed the view on November 9 that the new resolution on Iraq is nothing more than "a concealment of US military actions". And Lebanon foreign minister also indicated that possible US use of force against Iraq would be regarded as attacks on all Arab countries. Therefore, while they are persuading Iraq, they also maintain sharp vigilance. Some Arab countries have doubts and misgivings that the United States and the inspection group would deliberately pick flaws and stir up trouble in the process of arms inspection.

In addition, international analysts pointed out that because no progress had been made in Palestine-Israeli conflicts, Washington supports the Israeli side in the course of conflicts, and there is the sense of anti-Arabs and Muslims in America's attacks on the Bin Laden "Al-Qaeda" network, therefore, the current anti-US sentiments run very high in the entire Arab world. Frankly speaking, except for asking Iraq to accept the resolution, the Arab countries, in fact, are unable to prevent the outbreak of a possible war. Therefore, Iraq's acceptance of the resolution is probably the most direct and most effective method for averting the outbreak of war.

By People's Daily Online


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