Economists Say China's Economic Growth to Reach 7.4%

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Wednesday, August 21, 2002

Economists Say China's Economic Growth to Reach 7.4%

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A questionnaire conducted recently by China Economic Monitoring Center on more than 100 economists indicates that they are satisfied with the economic operation in the first half of this year, foretelling that the economic growth in 2002 would possibly overtake that of 2001, reaching some 7.4 percent.

Most of the experts are of the opinion that China's economic development witnessed a fine operation of steady rising with low inflation in the first half of the year. With regard to the GDP growth of 7.6 percent in the first quarter, 8.0 percent in the second, an average of 7.8 percent, 60.6 percent of experts thought they were better than expected, 30.3 percent deemed it as expected and only 9.1 percent took it as lower than wished for.

As regards the macroeconomic operation in the later half of 2002 as compared to the corresponding period of last year, 51.5 of the experts think it will be better than the previous year, 33.4 percent for it to be on a balance and 15.1 percent believe to fall short of the past. And as compared to that of the first half of this year 24.4 percent feel better about it, 54.5 percent for being equally good and 21.3 percent supposing to take a downturn.

The experts came to the conclusion on the following bases: first of all, it is based on the past experience, in which the average GDP growth is usually on a decrease from season to season meanwhile the positive financial policy tends to be weaker in the later half of the year and so it's not possible to reap a growth of 7.8 percent as did in the first half of the year. At the same time, it sees no slowdown in the speedy growth of investment and the three times successive wage-increase for civil servants produce an exemplary effect as an incentive factor, making the GDP to remain stable in the later half of the year. Secondly, through a temporary depression the world economy has shown a sign of recovery and is possible to go on increase at a slow speed. Therefore it will see a better condition for exporting trade in the later half of the year, which will produce a further support to the GDP growth.

In view of the China's national economic operation in the first half of the year as a whole, experts noted the following strong features: an obvious increase in investment exerted an impetus on the increase of domestic needs. The unexpected speedup expressed in foreign trade has made an important contribution to economic growth. In the organizational readjustment, agricultural production kept on increase with industry increase to gain up speed, financial operation going on steadily and for the better while the amount of currency supply began to go down.

In the meanwhile, experts also paid attention to the weak points in Chinese economy: it saw a slow growth in the total amount of retailing business for social consumption with a continuous decrease of price level on the whole. Contradiction in income structure stood out sharp and in employment as well with the demands for employment to be hard pressed. Besides, problems in production safety, social security and natural calamities in life and production all turned out more serious than in the same period of last year.

By People's Daily Online

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