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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Saturday, August 10, 2002

Analysis: Hopes for Burundi Peace Flicker in Suspicions

Burundi, a tiny war-torn central African country, seems to be seeing a ray of hope as negotiators of the Burundian transitional government and rebel groups gathered here for peace talks.


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Burundi, a tiny war-torn central African country, seems to be seeing a ray of hope as negotiators of the Burundian transitional government and rebel groups gathered here for peace talks.

Tanzania, one of the mediators of the Burundian peace process, Friday called on Burundi's second largest rebel group, the Forcesfor the National Liberation (FNL), to participate in the peace talks to be held in Dar es Salaam.

This appeal followed the preliminary technical consultations Friday which made people believe that there is still a chance of hope for ending the nine-year-old civil war which has claimed 250,000 lives and left hundreds of thousands of people homeless.

South African Vice President Jacob Zuma, who is to arrive in Dar es Salaam Sunday to chair the peace talks, has expressed his full confidence in the positive outcome of the face-to-face peace talks between the Tutsi-dominated Burundian government and Hutu rebel groups.

Burundi has been plunged into a bloody civil war since October 1993 when former Burundian president Melchior Ndadaye, a Hutu, wasoverthrown and killed in a military coup.

Under a peace plan brokered by former South African president Nelson Mandela in Arusha, Tanzania in 2000, the Burundian transitional government sharing power between the minority Tutsi and majority Hutu was set up in last November to try and steer thecountry from the conflicts.

Burundi's Tutsi President Pierre Buyoya has failed to end the civil war as two major Hutu rebel groups, the Forces for Defense of Democracy (FDD) and the FNL, refused to lay down arms and continued their fighting against the Tutsi-dominated government troops.

Last month, prospects for holding peace talks rose as FDD leader Pierre Nukurunziza announced that he intended to attend thepeace talks with the Buyoya government and called for a ceasefire.

The FNL stance on peace talks also began to change after Alain Mugabarabona announced that he had replaced hardline Agathon Rwasaas the leader of the rebel group, which has been demanding to dealdirectly with the army instead of the transitional government.

The peace talks, however, did not begin Tuesday as scheduled although the 14-member Burundian government delegation and the FDDnegotiating team were already in the Tanzanian capital.

Diplomatic sources here said the talks were postponed as the FNL and some other rebel groups did not turn up.

The shaky start comes amid reports reaching here from Bujumburathat at least 21 people were killed last weekend in the clashes between the government troops and the Hutu rebels.

The atmosphere surrounding the negotiations was also dampened by President Buyoya who scorned the FDD call for ceasefire, accusing the rebels of playing for time as the government troops were struggling to repel the offensives from the Hutu rebels.

Buyoya, who is due to step down and be replaced by Hutu Vice President Domicien Ndayizeye in April next year, even hardened hisstand by saying that his delegation would be present at the negotiating table only "if all goes well."

As a matter of fact, no one had predicted a smooth opening for peace talks because one of the conditions for a ceasefire to take hold, namely, the majority Hutus should have equal representation in the Burundian army as their minority Tutsi counterparts, is deemed as unacceptable by the Buyoya government.

The Hutus, accounting for 85 percent of the total population, think they are in an inferior position since the army is in the hands of the minority Tutsis, demanding an equal share in the armywhich actually holds the reins of the small landlocked country.

A spokesman for the FNL group made it very clear that their leadership did not want ministerial positions in the power-sharingtransitional government, but it wanted control of the army.

However, the Buyoya government is almost unlikely to agree to such a scheme as they believe the only way to ensure the safety ofthe Tutsis is to have a firm control over the army.

The genocide, which happened in neighboring Rwanda where around800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus were slaughtered, remains fresh in the memory of Burundians, including Hutus and Tutsis.

Despite media reports that formal talks are to begin Monday, itstill remains unclear when the FNL will participate in the peace talks involving the Burundian government and the FDD.

Moreover, three political parties, which have military wings, have threatened that they will not be bound by any agreement to bereached by the Burundian government and the FDD or FNL if they arenot invited to the talks.

The peace talks, to some extent, has also been negatively affected by the closer ties between the FDD and Tanzania, home to hundreds of thousands of Burundian refugees who were displaced by the civil war.

The relationship between Burundi and Tanzania has been brought to an all-time low as a result of the latter's pro-FDD stand prompted by frustration at the lack of progress made on peace.

Burundian Defense Minister Cyrille Ndayirukiye has accused Tanzania of hypocrisy over the meeting, saying it is ridiculous that Tanzania, a mediator of the Burundian peace talks, allows theHutu rebels to organize themselves on its soil.

The Tanzanian government categorically rejected the accusationsfrom Burundi, saying it has been making efforts for the restoration of peace in Burundi.

Clashes between the Burundian army and rebels groups are continuing as negotiators are making preparations for formal talks.Last week, the Hutu rebels launched rocket attacks on the capital Bujumbura and the army carried out operations against rebels.

The Arusha peace process has only given the Burundians a transitional government involving the minority Tutsis and majorityHutus, instead of putting an end to the devastating civil war inflicting the poor country since 1993.

Officials from the Tanzanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, the South African High Commission and the Burundian Embassy are all cautious in commenting on the formaltalks scheduled for next week.

The chance of a lasting peace exists, but looks slim at present.For all parties to the talks, to let reason rein in emotion is of the utmost importance.


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