Slaying of Afghan VP Heavy Blow to New Gov't: Analysis

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Monday, July 15, 2002

Slaying of Afghan VP Heavy Blow to New Gov't: Analysis

The slaying of Vice President of theAfghan Transitional Government Haji Abdul Qadeer on July 6 has delivered a heavy blow to the government headed by the newly-elected President, Hamid Karzai.

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The slaying of Vice President of theAfghan Transitional Government Haji Abdul Qadeer on July 6 has delivered a heavy blow to the government headed by the newly-elected President, Hamid Karzai.

Only 10 days after Karzai swore in his five vice presidents, Qadeer was assassinated in broad daylight in the center of the capital city of Kabul.

The fact that the tight security network, made up of police under the interior ministry, intelligence service agents and around 5,000 troops of the International Security Assistance Force(ISAF), could not prevent a vice president from being killed in the street will undoubtedly have a negative influence on the new government.

On top of the agenda of the transitional government now is to find out the truth of the assassination and bring the killers and those behind them to justice. If the government fails to do so, just like in the case of Minister of Civil Aviation and Tourism Abdul Rahman who was killed in February, the incident will incur serious problems.

Government officials, worrying about the security situation, will not be able to take up their responsibilities. Conflicting groups will make free-for-all killings of their rivals. Ordinary people will be frustrated with the government.

Afghan specialists, studying or living abroad, who want to takepart in the reconstruction of the country after 23 years of war, will postpone their returning home, while donor countries will also delay delivering their aid promises. Thus, the government will find itself caught in a dilemma -- unable to start the process of reconstruction without money and talents.

Also, after Qadeer was slain, the power balance in the government was broken. How to find an alternative of heavy weight is a big headache to President Karzai.

Qadeer was the second important Pushtun after Karzai himself inthe government, and also a vocal supporter of the president. Because he had fought shoulder-to-shoulder with the Northern Alliance against the Taliban regime, Qadeer can act, on one hand, as a representative of Pushtuns to water down the over-representation of Tajiks in the central government, and on the other hand, as a bridge between Pushtuns and ethnic groups from the northern provinces such as Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras, to promote ethnic reconciliation.

The majority in Jalalabad, capital of Nangarhar province and power base of the late vice president, have reportedly appealed onKarzai to nominate Din Mohammad, the elder brother of Qadeer, to occupy the late man's three positions -- vice president, minister of public works and provincial governor.

If Karzai accepts the suggestion, critics will complain that the hereditary system violates democratic process. Otherwise, the central government will face a hostile confrontation from the province.

Even if Karzai appointed Din Mohammad as his deputy, the lattercannot exert Qadeer's influence in the cabinet, and Pushtuns will only enjoy less say in the government decision-making process. So it will certainly trigger new conflicts between Pushtuns and otherethnic groups, people here believe.

Karzai has reiterated that a powerful central government rulingall provinces across the country should be established. The death of Qadeer made the central government lose an important bridge linking with the provinces in eastern and southeastern part of thecountry.

If Karzai cannot find a suitable successor to Qadeer in the region, a power vacuum will emerge and new conflicts will break out between warlords as they are vying for profit in drug trafficking at the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

If it happens, Karzai will face the warlords in the east, Ismael Khan in the west, Dostum in the north. The plan of buildinga powerful central government will become a mission impossible.

At the same time, the assassination of a vice president in daytime in downtown Kabul with strict guard precaution makes warlords in other provinces worry about their security in the capital.

The warlords can do anything they want in their own base areas,and they are reluctant to give up such a freedom. They will have more reasons to refuse Karzai's request to live in Kabul.

During the Loya Jirga, Karzai proposed Ismael Khan and Dostum to be vice presidents, but they refused to take the post. Because if they accept the proposal, they have to work for the central government and their power in their base areas will be restricted.

However, the assassination of Qadeer had no major impact on ordinary citizens in Afghanistan and did not change their confidence in the peaceful development of the country.

They share the opinion that the incident has some negative effect in the short term, but Afghanistan will stride forward to peace and prosperity with the help of the international society. Peace and economic development is the only hope of the Afghan people.

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