Experts Say Pesky El Nino Returns in China This Winter

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Wednesday, July 03, 2002

Experts Say Pesky El Nino Returns in China This Winter

The flooding in China that has claimed more than 500 lives since June was not the direct effect of El Nino, subnormal climate changes that bring about droughts or floods, experts say.

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The flooding in China that has claimed more than 500 lives since June was not the direct effect of El Nino, subnormal climate changes that bring about droughts or floods, experts say.

But El Nino, a natural phenomenon of the abnormal warming of waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean once every two to seven years, is expected to strike this winter, experts say.

Zhai Panmiao, a senior expert at the National Meteorological Centre (NMC), said that when El Nino comes, the average sea temperature could be 0.5 C above normal for at least six months.

Zhai refused to predict the possible impact of El Nino on China.

"It's a complex process," he said.

More rain to occur, but not to cause large-scale flood

The country's regional flooding has affected 110 million people across China's 18 provinces and municipalities and resulted from this summer's "frequently jumping rain belt," another meteorologist said.

Zhang Guocai, NMC director, predicted that from July to August, China's major rainy areas will be on the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and areas south of the river.

Much rain will likely occur in provinces along the river, including Hunan, Hubei, Guizhou and Yunnan.

But Zhang ruled out the possibility of a large-scale flood throughout China following such heavy rainfall.

By contrast, summer droughts are likely to strike the rest of China, as has happened in the last three years, particularly in areas downstream of the Yellow River and in parts of Northeast, North, Southwest and South China, Zhang said.

Typhoon Rammasun, the year's No 5 tropical storm in the West Pacific, will pound China's southeast coast with strong winds over the next five days, possibly causing damage, Zhang said.

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