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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Monday, June 17, 2002

ABM Treaty Demise Opens Door to US Missile Defense Efforts, But Problems Remain

The U.S. military broke ground on six underground missile interceptor silos in Alaska as part of its missile defense system on Saturday, just two days after it formally withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM Treaty).


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The U.S. military broke ground on six underground missile interceptor silos in Alaska as part of its missile defense system on Saturday, just two days after it formally withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM Treaty).

The Fort Greely missile defense site, about 100 miles (161 kilometers) southeast of Fairbanks in the Alaska interior, will atfirst be used for testing, but the Pentagon hopes that this formerArmy garrison will be converted into a high-tech system able to shoot down long-range nuclear missiles headed for a U.S. target by2004.

Since the then U.S. President Ronald Reagan proposed a nationaldefense against nuclear missile attack ("Star Wars") in 1983, the Republican Party has taken missile defense as a top priority in its polices.

U.S. President George W. Bush, since assuming power in January 2001, has committed the United States to deploying a missile shield as soon as possible and intensified its effort to develop the missile defense system, rejecting complaints from European allies and Russia that the plan will spark a new round of arms race.

On December 13, Bush announced that the United States would unilaterally withdraw from the ABM Treaty which severely limited missile defenses and would have barred the U.S. from beginning work on the Fort Greely site. The decision took effect on Thursday.

The ABM Treaty, signed by the United States and the Soviet Union in 1972, had been long conducive to the maintenance of the strategic stability in the world.

"We now face new threats from terrorists who seek to destroy our civilization by any means available to rogue states armed withweapons of mass destruction and long-range missiles," Bush said ina written statement on Thursday in a bid to justify the U.S. determination to develop the missile defense system.

The demise of the ABM Treaty has removed restrictions on the United States and opened the door for the country to aggressivelypursue and deploy the missile defense system that Bush hopes couldstrike from land, sea, air and space against enemy missiles and protect all the 50 states.

However, the development and deployment of the multilayer system, which also include airborne lasers and space-based killer satellites, still faces three major problems -- uncertain technologies, cost and opposition from home and abroad.

The idea of developing a missile to strike an incoming enemy missile in space is still an uncertain proposition based on technology not yet invented, many scientists point out. It is likea bullet hitting another bullet fired from a gun, they say.

Land-based interceptors designed to collide with a warhead in space during the midcourse of its trajectory are expected to be built first. The United States has conducted six land-based missile defense tests so far, of which four were successful.

Some 20 developmental tests, each costing about 100 million U.S.dollars, will be needed before the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) program is ready for the next step -- realistic operational testing, according to Philip E. Doyle, assistant secretary of defense and director of operational test and evaluation under the Clinton administration.

The U.S. Air Force intends to use its developmental airborne laser against long-range warheads, hoping to deploy two laser-equipped jets by 2009. The laser would be carried in a Boeing 747 cargo jet and would target an enemy missile it its boost phase, zapping it at the speed of light.

Moreover, the Air Force is working on space-based lasers that would be mounted on 24 satellites. But the proposed test will not take place until as early as 2010 and the U.S. Congress has given the program only 40 million dollars.

Meanwhile, navy engineers are working on two systems. The most promising would be installed on Aegis cruisers, which are equippedwith sophisticated radar. It also has begun research on short-range defenses, but that task is daunting as ships would have be stationed near an enemy launch site.

The missile defense system would be the most costly project theU.S. government has ever undertaken in history.

Since 1985, the Pentagon has spent at least 66 billion dollars on missile defense programs and research. The Congressional BudgetOffice estimated that by 2025, the cost of a missile defense system could reach as high as 238 billion dollars.

The U.S. Congress has authorized 7.8 billion dollars for missile defense in the current fiscal year, which ends on September 30. Bush has asked for 7.6 billion dollars for missile defense in 2003.

Washington's withdrawal from the ABM Treaty and its missile defense system has invited criticism both from home and abroad.

While the international community points out that the Bush administration's actions would harm the global strategic stabilityand the world peace, the debate on the cost, technology and practicability of the missile defense system has never stopped at home.

Critics argue that the threat of ballistic missile attack has declined since the end of the Cold War and the system would do nothing to thwart attacks from terrorists like those involved in September 11 terrorist attacks.

Last week, 30 House Democrats and one independent filed suit infederal court to override Bush's decision to leave the ABM Treaty,arguing that Bush has no authority to make the decision without consulting Congress. Bush critics also suggest presidential politics is the driving force behind the timetable for missile defense.

With the withdrawal from the ABM Treaty, the U.S. defense system has embarked on a ship of no return, observers here say.

"There is no endgame," says Steve Hildreth, a defense analyst at the Congressional Research Service. "It's completely open-endedas to how far this thing can grow."


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