Asymmetric Trial of Strength: Commentary

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Monday, June 03, 2002

Asymmetric Trial of Strength: Commentary

Over the past month, people of the world have witnessed two major events in the history of the relations between Russia and the West. One is on the treaty on the reduction of offensive strategic forces of Russia and the United States, the other is about relations between Russia and the NATO.

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Over the past month, people of the world have witnessed two major events in the history of the relations between Russia and the West.

Demolition of nuclear warheads

Russia, NATO Declaration

Roundup: Relations to Higher Level

Putin Signs Rome Declaration

Historic Deal

NATO Opens Moscow Military Mission

In the field of nuclear disarmament, after going through consultations at different levels between Russian and US experts, defense ministers and foreign ministers, the two countries had finally reached a compromise on the partial storage and partial demolition of nuclear warheads, presidents of the two countries had also formally signed a treaty on the reduction of offensive strategic forces of Russia and the United States.

Judging from the final results, Russia and the United States each had gotten their due. Just as what was said by related American experts, Russia got a treaty, while the United States obtained what it wanted.

New "20 mechanism" for Russia

With regard to the relations between Russia and the NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization), the 20-Nation Rome Leaders Conference held on May 28 declared the formal establishment of a Russia-NATO council, the new "20-mechanism" formally replaced the "19+1 mechanism".

In NATO's description, "this marks the end of the Cold War mentality and represents a change in the psychological and thinking mode of both sides", while the Russian side considers this "a new channel for genuine political cooperation between both sides".

Russia has taken a crucial step forward toward the goal of merging itself into the West. Regarding this, what the observers of the international community are more concerned about is to what degree can the new "20 mechanism" guarantee Russia's State security and strategic interests.

In the period from the nuclear terror balance between the Soviet Union and the United States during the Cold War era to the present "partial storage and partial demolition" scheme, and from the saber rattling between the NATO and the Warsaw Pact to the "19+1 mechanism" and then to the present "20 mechanism", the world strategic pattern has traversed a rough and rugged course featuring the change of events over the past decades.

Compared with past long years of Soviet (Russia)-US arms control negotiations, and a spate of agreement documents, the present agreement reached between Russia and the United States on the reduction of nuclear weapons features fast speed and short space, this indicates that both sides hope and need to sign this treaty.

There is a very interesting sentence in the treaty, which says, "by December 31, 2012, the total number of strategic nuclear warheads in the hands of both sides should be cut to no more than 1,700-2,200. Based on the prescribed total number of nuclear warheads, both sides can independently decide the element and structure of their own offensive strategic weapons".

Apparently, the two treaty parties did not clearly define the concrete annual reduction targets by the end of 2012, nor did they mention measures for check and verification, they didn't bother whether weapons were really dismantled.

So, storing has also become a reduction method by which nuclear warheads are taken down from the actual combating post and put away in the warehouse. Once circumstance requires, they will be swiftly taken out of the warehouse and reassembled again for use.

Considering the background that the list of new member states to be accepted in the next step to be decided at the Prague Summit by the NATO this November, people feel that the founding of the Russia-NATO council and the birth of the "20-mechanism" contain more or less the flavor of a "treaty signed with the enemy battering the fortress wall".

As far as Russia, which is short of the strength to preserve its own strategic space, is concerned, although the accords it signed with the United States and the NATO left much to be desired, they, however, preserve at least in form the nuclear disarmament mechanism, perhaps it can still be regarded as a pragmatic choice.

But by a mere paper of the symbolic treaty on partial storage and partial tear-down of nuclear warheads and by the right to participate in some non-core affairs just gained by Russia from the "20-mechanism", whether the stability of the world strategic pattern as expected by kind-hearted people can be ensured, nobody dares to guarantee at the moment.

World events are hardly predictable, but one point is certain: Once there is a sign of unfavorable disturbance in the world, the NATO will possibly throw off Russia, and the United States desert the NATO and unscrupulously hold high the banner of unilateralism and will do as it pleases by capitalizing on its strength and position as the sole superpower in the world.

The world's deepest concern

What the international community is more concerned about is to what extent and at what speed the nuclear disarmament treaty signed this time by the presidents of Russia and the United States and the establishment of the NATO-Russia council will change the current transitional state of the Russia-US bilateral relations and determine the direction of future development.

During the transitional period, what responsible measures the United States--the No.1 military power and nuclear power in today's world-- will adopt for the stability of the world strategy pattern.

To a certain extent, it can be said that the "September 11" incident did not really show its impact on the international strategic pattern until the present moment: An asymmetric war has finally triggered an asymmetric test of strength between Russia and the United States at the negotiation table.

Its result will inevitably be asymmetrical too. In spite of this, kindhearted people are still expecting it can bring the world a greater sense of security.

By People's Daily Online

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