Self-interest Pushes US Diplomacy in South Asia

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Monday, June 03, 2002

Self-interest Pushes US Diplomacy in South Asia

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The United States has embarked on a more aggressive diplomacy to defuse tension between India and Pakistan by announcing on Thursday that Defence Minister Donald Rumsfeld will follow Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage to the region this week.

The announcement by US President George W. Bush came as a surprise. The administration had clearly not taken the tensions very seriously when it went on with a 10-day joint military manoeuvre with India on May 16-26 and scheduled Armitage's departure for South Asia as late as June 4.

Analysts believe the Bush administration's newly found urgency in diplomacy is largely based on the judgement that crucial US interests have been under threat.

First, even the US media maintain it was not an coincidence that Bush's decision came shortly after Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf announced in Islamabad on Thursday that, as a result of rising tension with its giant neighbour, Pakistan has decided to redeploy its forces currently helping the United States hunt down Taliban and al-Qaida fugitives near its border with Afghanistan to reinforce its defence against India.

The Bush administration cannot take Islamabad's message lightly because the 120,000-strong Pakistani troops, or one-fifth of Pakistan's total armed forces, are crucial for the US efforts to fight the terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Intelligence sources said some Taliban and al-Qaida fugitives who survived the US military strike in Afghanistan have managed to flee to Pakistan's tribal regions bordering Afghanistan.

As US officials have confessed, part of Rumsfeld's mission to South Asia is to assess the impact of the Indian-Pakistan fever on the US war against terrorism.

Second, both the administration and the US public are also very much concerned for the safety of 60,000 US citizens in India and more than 1,000 US troops in Pakistan.

Experts said it is really a job to evacuate all the US citizens and troops from the two countries, and the task will become daunting if commercial air traffic is disrupted by a war.

Third, the Bush administration has realized the tension between India and Pakistan has escalated to such a serious level that it warrants urgent outside intervention.

Speaking in an unusual stern tone, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher warned on Wednesday a serious conflagration could ensue if events spiral out of control in Kashmir.

"There is a danger that, as tensions escalate, the leaders could find themselves in a situation in which irresponsible elements can spark a conflict," Boucher said.

A US intelligence assessment, completed last week, estimated that a nuclear war between Pakistan and India could result in as many as 12 million people killed and 7 million injured in just the initial minutes, according to a US Defence official.

Millions of additional casualties could result from related firestorms and such longer-term consequences as starvation and radiation poisoning, the official said.

Rumsfeld, speaking to reporters shortly after Bush announced his mission to South Asia, said he will share US knowledge about what a nuclear war looks like with Indian and Pakistani leaders when he travels to the region next week.

Fourth, according to some local media, Bush's decision to dispatch Rumsfeld may be part of a calculated diplomatic strategy to prevent an India-Pakistan war from erupting in the near future.

Military analysts believe, if India decides to go into a war with Pakistan, it may well choose to fight before the monsoon, two weeks away.

Joint diplomacy by the United States, Britain, Russia, or even Japan may help delay an Indian decision on war until the monsoon comes and, therefore, earn more time for diplomacy.

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