Analysis: US-Russian Treaty Leaves Questions

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Thursday, May 16, 2002

Analysis: US-Russian Treaty Leaves Questions

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US President George W. Bush announced on Monday an agreement with Russia on a treaty to cut their nuclear arsenal. The commitment to cut the nuclear stockpiles of mass destruction undoubtedly should be welcomed, as less deadly weapons imply a more secure world.

Under the agreement, both sides will cut their nuclear weapons from more than 6,000 and 7,000 warheads respectively to somewhere between 1,700 and 2,200 warheads over the next 10 years.

Yet the initial euphoria with a sense of a more secure and safer world may evaporate after a careful examination of the accord.

Despite the cap placed on the number of warheads that can be deployed, the target number is still high enough for each side to destroy the other several times over.

"This agreement still leaves the United States and Russia with nearly 2,000 weapons each, which is more than enough to inflict a devastating nuclear attack," Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, was quoted as saying.

Besides, the treaty is remarkably brief. The three-page agreement only provides ultimate goals without specific instructions and elaborates on time schedules to achieve a sharp reduction.

What is more unsettling is that the reduction may be reversible.

The treaty has given the Bush administration great flexibility in how to conduct the reduction.

The question on what to do with the warheads once they are removed from missiles, submarines and bombers is still left open and it is reported that the Bush administration intends to keep an unspecified number of both warheads and delivery systems in reserve.

This means that the US side would be able to retrieve the lethal weapons from the mothballs in the future and the storage itself will still incur considerable nuclear risks.

Besides, the deal even stipulates that either side can pull out of the treaty with three months' notice.

While there are many questions about the accord, there are also great doubts about Bush's credibility and commitment to the deal as he seems to be a born breaker of the bond of international treaties.

He walked out of the Kyoto Protocol, quit the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty, and early this month renounced any obligation to co-operate with the new International Criminal Court.

Thus the treaty is rather a political gesture to win support from Russia in its anti-terror campaign than a sincere move towards global peace. And the US relentless ambition for a missile defence system, which is obviously unmentioned in such a serious arm-control treaty, still overshadows peace and stability of the world.

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