ADB Optimistic about China's Economic Future

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Wednesday, April 10, 2002

ADB Optimistic about China's Economic Future

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) Tuesday predicted an optimistic future for China's economy as the country becomes one of the leaders of Asian economic development.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) Tuesday (April 9) predicted an optimistic future for China's economy as the country is becoming one of the leaders of Asian economic development.

According to ADB's annual report "Asia Development Outlook: 2002" issued Tuesday, China's economy is expected to rise seven percent this year and 7.3 percent next year.

The report attributes China's economic success to the rapidly expanding consumption and the accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

China's industry and tertiary industry

The report says China's industry and tertiary industry will increase seven to nine percent in 2002 and 2003, and the growth of agriculture will be two to three percent.

China's inflation

China's inflation will be between one and two percent over the next two years, said the report, due to the superfluous productivity in some industrial sectors and the inflow of agricultural produce and some other cheap products from overseas market.

Global economy

ADB said the global economy will recover next year. Min Tang, chief economist of the ADB Mission in China said the economic growth rate of the United States will hit three percent this year and that of the euro region will probably reach 1.7 percent.

Japan is expected to reach a zero growth this year against last year's minus growth. And in 2003, the recovery of the global economy will be faster, said Tang.

Exports & imports

According to ADB, given present international environment, China's exports this year and next will respectively soar six and 10 percent.

However, China's import growth rate will exceed that of exports after China's accession to the WTO, said ADB, adding that the favorable trade balance will disappear gradually in China.

Unemployment rate

ADB estimated that China's reported unemployment rate in 2001 was 3.6 percent, although the actual rate might hit seven percent if laid-offs were put into the bracket

Number of rural people in poverty

The number of rural people in poverty decreased to 30 million in 2001 against 80 million in 1994, while the poverty line set by the Chinese government in the 1980s is much lower than the international standard which is one dollar per day.

Asian Development Outlook 2002

This 14th edition of the Asian Development Outlook provides a comprehensive analysis of 41 economies in Asia and the Pacific, based on the Asian Development Bank�s in-depth knowledge of the region. For the first time, the Outlook includes a section on Afghanistan. It also provides a broad diagnosis of macroeconomic conditions and growth prospects as they relate to progress in poverty reduction in the economies of the region.

Economic growth in developing Asia and the Pacific slowed markedly in 2001 after a strong performance in 1999 and 2000. This is mainly on account of a sharp erosion of external demand as industrial economies experienced recession or very slow growth. There are, however, several exceptions to the general trend with a number of economies, notably the People�s Republic of China, maintaining relatively high growth. In some economies, domestic demand, responding to expansionary policy, emerged as a more important source of growth. The outlook for 2002 and 2003 is for renewed optimism.

The Outlook includes a special chapter reviewing preferential trade agreements, with particular reference to Asia and the Pacific. As international trade grew rapidly in the 1990s, so did the number of such agreements, especially in the region. The chapter analyzes the impact of such agreements, in the context of the multilateral trade negotiations being carried out under the auspices of the World Trade Organization.

The Asian Development Outlook 2002 features:

A review of global economic trends as well as an overview of aggregate trends and medium-term prospects by main subregion in Asia and the Pacific.

Macroeconomic profiles and prospects for 41 economies in the region, including growth, saving and investment, employment, inflation, monetary and fiscal developments, and trade and balance of payments, as well as an analysis of policy issues.

An analysis of preferential trade agreements as they relate to the Asia and Pacific region.

A statistical appendix detailing historical trends and projections for major economic indicators.

Sources from: http://www.adb.org/

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