China's Export to Increase by 4 Times in 10 Years: Morgan Stanley

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Wednesday, January 09, 2002

China's Export to Increase by 4 Times in 10 Years: Morgan Stanley

A report published by Asian chief economist with Morgan Stanley points out that China's export will grow fast in 10 years in spite of a slump at present. In the coming ten years, China is expected to be capable to increase its export value by 4 times, up to 1,000 billion US$.

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Steady growth in long run

A report published by Xie Guozhong, Asian chief economist with Morgan Stanley, points out that China's export will grow fast in the coming 10 years in spite of a slump at present. Last year China's per capita export averaged merely 200USD, much less than that of other important countries. In the coming ten years, China is expected to be capable to increase its export value by 4 times, up to 1,000 billion USD, and raise its GDP to 3,000 billion USD.

A slump at present

Xie said that China is currently being found with a waning part by exports for a growth of its economy. The policy of tax rebates on export duties has been used to possible limit over the past several years. Adjustment of currency rate or devaluation of Reminbi must be avoided for no grave consequences as in some other countries to incur great losses to China's interests should be allowed. The most optimistic thing is that foreign direct investment would continue a 20 percent growth this year and bring a rise of 1 percent to the country's GDP.

Xie added that car sales have reduced recently. This is due to the fact that car tariff is expected to cut down after China's entry into the WTO; profit of enterprises is down. It is predicted that the increasing rate would decrease below 7 percent in the 4th quarter of 2001 to the second quarter of 2002. Reform by state-owned enterprises, which aims to improve efficiency, would suppress demand on a short view and increase it in the long run.

Export review in 2001 and prediction in 2002

In 2001 China's exports to the United States remained the largest among all its trading partners. It grew 4.2 percent in the first 10 months, at 45.18 billion US dollars. But the growth rate marked a 23 percentage points lower from the same period of 2000.

The country's exports to Japan climbed 8.4 percent to 36.56 billion US dollars, 24 percentage points lower. And China's exports to the European Union edged 6.5 percent to 33.53 billion US dollars, down 25.1 percentage points.

However, China's exports of high-tech products kept growing at a high speed. From January to October in 2001, the value of high-tech commodities exports added up to 36.465 billion US dollars, up 23.6 percent. The exports of high-tech goods has become an important force behind the exports growth.

"The exports for the first half of 2002 will be difficult under current international situation," said an expert. "But China is now striving to diversify its exports market and provide more technical assistance. It is also simplifying its procedures of exports following its entry into the World Trade Organization.

by PD Online Staff Yang Ruoqian

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