Middle East Peace Process Suffers Severe Setbacks

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Thursday, January 03, 2002

Middle East Peace Process Suffers Severe Setbacks

The Israeli-Palestinian peace process collapsing with the outbreak of bloody conflicts in September 2000 was further shattered with escalating violence and deteriorating relationship between the two sides in 2001.

The peace process has suffered the most severe setbacks since it was set in motion after the signing of the 1993 Oslo peace accords.

The failure to end the lingering confrontation was largely due to the lack of the political understanding in efforts to solve differences between the two sides and the absence of an effective external diplomatic engagement, especially on the part of the United States.

On the Israeli side, since taking office in March, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon from the right-wing Likud Party has vowed to restore security to his people by fighting Palestinian "terror" and not to negotiate under fire.

His hardline stance has been translated into military efforts to suppress the Palestinian uprising, with harsh reprisals against Palestinian attacks, targeted killings of Palestinian activists and tight closures on the Palestinian territories, which in turn triggered more cycles of violence.

Although repeatedly claiming that he would make "painful compromises" for peace, Sharon's demand, particularly that for a seven-day complete quiet as the first step toward a cease-fire, proved to be an insurmountable obstacle in the international mediatory efforts to end the violence and restart the peace process.

As a result, the Mitchell Report and the Tenet ceasefire plan, which were designed to lead the Israelis and Palestinians out of the quagmire of confrontation, have never been able to be implemented.

Sharon's foot-dragging on the diplomatic front can be attributed partly to his lack of personal motivation to revive the peace negotiations that would necessarily entail Israeli concessions, and partly to domestic pressure from right-wing factions.

Ever since Sharon came to power, there has been a fierce debate among the Israeli political echelon as to whether Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat remains a peace partner.

Sharon well understood that it was hard for him to sell his plan containing only interim agreements to the Palestinians after the latter rejected the "far-reaching offer" by his predecessor Ehud Barak at the Camp David summit in July 2000.

Following the September 11 terror attacks in the United States, Sharon took advantage of the international ant-terrorism campaign to label all Palestinian resistance attacks as "terrorism" and expand military operations against Palestinian targets.

The Israeli forces unleashed further military might following the killing of Tourism Minister Rehavam Ze'evi on October 17, launching the largest incursion into the cities under Palestinian rule in the West Bank and wiping out a number of Palestinian militants.

The Israeli-Palestinian relations witnessed a dangerous deterioration in December after the chain Palestinian suicide bombing attacks inside Israel and later a fatal shooting attack on Israeli bus in the West Bank, which left 43 Israelis dead in less than two weeks.

The Israeli cabinet declared the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) a "terrorist-supporting entity" and cut contacts with Arafat.

Meanwhile, the Israeli army waged massive retaliatory air raids on Palestinian security installations and a series of ground operations. Arafat himself was cooped up in the West Bank city of Ramallah and the Palestinian autonomy was much paralyzed.

Under strong international pressures, Arafat renewed his call to end attacks on Israel and ordered severe crackdown on militants to force the radical groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad (Holy War) to announce suspension of attacks inside Israel.

However, Israel refused to view the Palestinian announcements as real ceasefire efforts and continued to demand the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) take further actions against the militants.

The Israeli-Palestinian confrontation has now encountered an impasse characterized with relative quiet.

The latest developments have pushed Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and the PNA into a very difficult situation. Arafat, who has been facing challenges to rein in militants and is now further weakened by Israeli strikes, finds it even harder to make the arrests and destroy the infrastructure of radical organizations as demanded by Israel.

The lack of political hope to end the Israeli occupation and harsh Israeli attacks have prompted Palestinian factions to close ranks and join attacks on Israeli targets. Arafat would put his authority at risks and face an internal war if he were to expand actions against radical forces under the present circumstances.

Apart from Israeli hardline positions, the failure to achieve a lasting ceasefire is also due to the lack of effective third-party intervention in the conflict, especially that of the U.S., which has been the main mediator of the Middle East peace process.

After assuming power in January 2001, U.S. President George W. Bush adopted a "hands-off" approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflicts.

Following the September 11 terror attacks, Washington was compelled to renew engagement in the region because of criticism from Arab states for being pro-Israel and out of fear that the international anti-terrorism coalition might be disturbed by the escalating violence in the Middle East.

Bush announced that the U.S. supports the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and presented an outline for the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute.

The U.S. dispatched its Mideast envoy Anthony Zinni to the region in late November in an effort to help establish ceasefire. However, the ceasefire mission failed due to the absence of a clear-cut and detailed blueprint for a peace settlement and real pressure on the Israelis.

The 15-month bloody conflicts have caused heavy human and economic losses to both the Israelis and Palestinians, leaving more than 1,000 people dead, about three-fourths of them Palestinians.

The Israeli and Palestinian economy is estimated to have lost respectively about 4.5 billion U.S. dollars and 3 billion dollars as a result of the conflicts. More than 100,000 Palestinians have lost jobs because of Israeli closures.

Historical experiences have showed that peace negotiations are the only way to settle the Israeli-Palestinian disputes while violence and confrontation will only bring about sufferings and tragedies to both peoples.

As Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres has pointed out that military means alone can never achieve a real ceasefire and a political horizon must be explored.

Observers believe that Israel, being the dominant party in the dispute, shoulders the main responsibility to end the conflicts and revive the peace talks. Israel also has the moral obligation to take the first step in the face of global opposition to its continued occupation of Palestinian territories.

Encouraging signs do exist at the end of the year as the sketches of a new deal emerged as a result of the nonstop efforts by Peres and Palestinian Legislative Council Speaker Ahmed Qurei to seek a solution to the crisis.

Under pressure from the left-wing Labor Party, Sharon also declared public support for Peres to conduct talks with Palestinian officials.

Nevertheless, it remains unclear whether the latest diplomatic efforts will bear fruits, especially considering the strong opposition from Sharon's right-wing factions in the coalition government.

With a heavy blow to mutual trust and a lack of active U.S. engagement, a major breakthrough in the peace process is unlikely to be made in the near future. There are still a number of uncertainties concerning the direction of the Israeli-Palestinian crisis in 2002.

Source: Xinhua (By Zhong Cuihua)