Global Economic Recession Affects China's Exports

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Friday, December 07, 2001

Global Economic Recession Affects China's Exports

Economic experts forecast that China's growth rate for imports will outstrip that for exports during the first several years following accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). China still faces many difficulties and barriers as world economy worsens and experts call for improved export structure and updated industrial products.

4th Annual Meeting of China Development Forum Opens in Beijing

6 percent exports growth rate expected

Economic experts forecast that China's growth rate for imports will outstrip that for exports during the first several years following accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

"But trade balance is likely to be achieved after these initial years,'' said Bai Hejin, president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute under the State Development Planning Commission (SDPC).

Exports are expected to reach an annual growth rate of 6 per cent during the 10th Five-Year Plan (2001-05) period, while the average growth rate for imports is likely to be 10 per cent.

"The trade surplus will increasingly decrease, and sometimes trade deficit will emerge,'' Bai predicted.

Difficulty remains as world economy worsens

Bai said that the State's exports face difficulty as a result of the worsening world economic situation.

"We are experiencing a difficulty, which is more severe than that when Asian financial turmoil swept parts of the world in 1997-98,'' Bai said.

Bai anticipated that the world economy is expected to shake off recession in 2003.

The recession may possibly make the State's export growth rate this year plummet from 27.8 per cent in 2000 to 5 per cent.

"It's not an easy task for us to achieve a growth rate of even 3 to 4 per cent,'' said Bai.

Export structure to be improved

Meanwhile, the barriers for some of the State's competitive export products are still there, although China has become a WTO member.

For instance, the United States can register anti-dumping complaints against China's textile exports, but the price of the product at home markets cannot be used as a standard against that in United States until 2015.

Bai said the State will further restructure its exports.

Mechanical and electronic products are expected to make up 50 per cent of the State's overall volume of exports in 2005. And the export volume of high-tech products is likely to stay at 20 per cent.

Forum held for China's development

Bai revealed the above predictions prior to Thursday opening ceremony of the fourth annual meeting of the China Development Forum, jointly sponsored by the State Information Centre and Bai's institute.

Wang Chunzheng, vice-minister of SDPC told more than 500 officials, experts and entrepreneurs attending the two-day meeting that the State will massively restructure its economy in the new era when China becomes a WTO member.

The State has decided to make great efforts to modernize agriculture and upgrade industrial products.

Wang also said the State encourages foreigners to invest in high-tech industries such as information technology, biological engineering and new materials, and basic industries such as chemicals and building materials.

"Infrastructure construction will require extensive investment, especially in western regions,'' Wang said.

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