China's GDP Expected to Up 7.5%: PBOC Reports |
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According to the '2001 Third-Quarter Currency Policy Executive Report published by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) recently, China's macro-economy has shown a clear slackening tendency. The growth rate of China's GDP of 2001 is expected to reach 7.5 percent, lower than the 8.0 percent growth rate of 2000. The slackening international economic situation is the major factor for the slowdown of China's economic growth.
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According to the '2001 Third-Quarter Currency Policy Executive Report published by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) recently, China's macro-economy has shown a clear slackening tendency. The growth rate of China's GDP of 2001 is expected to reach 7.5 percent, lower than the 8.0 percent growth rate of 2000.
As sources say, China's GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of this year added up to 7.6 percent. The primary, secondary and tertiary industry witnessed a growth of 2.5, 9.3 and 7.0 percent respectively. Calculated on single quarter basis, the GDP increased by 8.1, 7.7 and 7.0 percent respectively in the first, second and third quarter of this year.
According to the analysis, the slackening international economic situation is the major factor for the slowdown of China's economic growth, which can be seen mainly in two aspects.
First, the drop of international demand leading to economic decline of the enterprises funded by investment from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. The growth rate of these enterprises was 10.6 percent in September, down by a large margin from the 11.4 percent of last year and the 24.9 percent of February this year. For many joint ventures, they import materials from foreign countries and do processing work. Afterwards, they sell the finished products to the international market. The exports volume of trade of processing and assembling materials supplied by customers and processing materials imported from other regions increased by 1.8 and 8.6 percent respectively in the first nine months. The two items account for about half of the country's imports and exports volume. Imports volume of these two items raised by 2.0 and 0.4 percent. The slow growth of material imports indicates that exports of processing trade will not pick up greatly in the days to come because the materials mainly come from foreign countries.
Secondly, the large adjustment resulted from the over-investment in hi-tech industry and overproduction has gradually shown its unfavorable impact on related Chinese enterprises, thus leading to the decline of output of hi-tech products by a large margin.
By PD Online staff member Du Minghua
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