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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Thursday, November 28, 2002

China-Russian Relations Remain Better Than Russian-US Ties

For more than one year, Russian-US relations seem to have been in a heating up state. Some analysts express the view that among the China-US-Russia triangular relations, China-Russian strategic cooperative relations have become hollow and China is in an isolated position among the trilateral relations.


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For more than one year, Russian-US relations seem to have been in a heating up state. Some analysts express the view that among the China-US-Russia triangular relations, China-Russian strategic cooperative relations have become hollow and China is in an isolated position among the trilateral relations.

In the opinion of the writer, Zheng Yu, of this article, the theoretical foundation of China-Russian strategic cooperation, i.e., opposition to a mono-polar world and the common goal for promoting a multi-polar world still remains in existence, the two sides have found a new common point in their opposition to the US national missile defense (NMD) system, furthermore, the field of concrete cooperation is expanding and deepening continuously. Whereas Russian-US contradiction is increasing gradually along with the passage of time.

The "September 11" incident occurred over one year ago has not only given prominence to the anti-terrorism theme on the current international political agenda, but has also exerted profound influence on the China-Russia-US trilateral relations. Russia's active coordination with the US counter-terrorist action has quickly improved Russia-US ties that have all along been in a slump since the "Kosovo incident" in 1999. The Russia-US Moscow summit meeting at the end of May 2002 was said to have led to a qualitative change in Russian-US relationship, some international media and analysts even maintain that China-Russian strategic cooperative relations have thus become hollow and China has been in an isolated position in the trilateral relations. In the opinion of this writer, the international situation over the past year and more, particularly the posture of the relations among China, Russia and the United States since June 2002, indicates that China-Russian relations remain better than Russia-US ties.

China and Russia Have Found New Common Point of Interests in the NMD Field
Taking advantage of the opportunity offered by the "September 11" terrorist attacks, the Russian government drastically improved its ties with the United States, while at the same time paying particular attention to maintaining China-Russian strategic cooperative relations, meanwhile, the two sides have found a new common point of interest in the most sensitive NMD field.

Firstly, the theoretical foundation for China-Russian strategic cooperation remains in existence. So-called theoretical foundation for strategic cooperation refers to the theory on opposing a mono-polar world and promoting a multi-polar world as stressed in the Joint Statement issued by the Chinese and Russian leaders in April 1997. After the "September 11" event, the Russian government, in order to avoid irritating the United States and hampering improvement of bilateral relations, accepted the proposal put forward by the latter's consultation agency before the occurrence of the said incident that attention should be paid to avoiding the use of the concept of multi-polarization in official diplomatic documents and in leaders' public speeches, but the Russian government actually has not given up the above-mentioned basic policy, there are frequent expressions on the advocacy of multi-polarization.

For example, while accepting the interview by the president of People's Daily on May 30, 2002, President Vladimir Putin pointed out the world significance of China-Russia strategic cooperative relations in the establishment of a multi-polar world, he said, "the common point of the national interests of the two countries is established on the basis of Russian-China cooperative partnership, the common attitude toward some major international issues is the foundation for our strategic cooperation. This is the reason why we regard the development of special Russian-China relationship as our common great achievements. However, its significance goes far beyond the development of bilateral relations, because the partnership between us is the common wealth of the entire international community, in essence, we and China have provided the world with a new model for state-to-state relations, of which conscious non-alliance is combined with the coordinated efforts to safeguard common interests. This is the tremendous contribution made by Russia and China to the establishment of a new-type, multi-polar international order after the conclusion of the 'Cold War'."

In addition, the united front between China and Russia in opposing US further research and development of the NMD system remains in existence. On May 24, 2002, presidents of Russia and the United States signed in Moscow a new "Treaty on Cutting Down Strategic Weapons" and the "Joint Declaration on New Strategic Relations". In these two documents, Russia no longer expressed its principled stand of opposing US withdrawal from the ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty) and establishment of NMD, moreover, Russia indicated that Russia and the United States would enter into cooperation in the missile defense field.

This policy adjustment of Russia is obviously based on its strategic consideration of making an overall improvement of Russia-US relations, But it should be pointed out that Russia had all along stuck to its stand of making no concessions before the United States' forced withdrawal from the ABM, Russia adopted an acquiescent attitude only after US withdrawal had become an established fact.

As for Russian-US cooperation in the missile defense field, no concrete explanations were given in the "Joint Declaration on the New Strategic Relations", in the opinions of the writer, this should refer to the following aspects: 1. The two countries exchange information related to anti-missile plans and anti-missile tests; 2. Experts of the two countries exchange visits so as to supervise anti-missile tests and inspect the anti-missile system; 3. The two countries exchange information obtained in each other's early warning system and establish a joint early warning center; and 4. Conducting cooperation in the technical field on establishing a European NMD system within the framework of the Russia-NATO Council. In regard to the substantive technical cooperation between the two countries in the NMD field, this writer thinks that this is impossible; the United States will not allow Russia to master the key technology in the NMD system of the United States, so that the technology will not be easily seen through; nor will Russia sincerely help the United States strengthen its nuclear shields to avoid the loss of Russia's own nuclear deterrence. capability.

Therefore, presently it is still impossible to assert as done by certain domestic scholars who declare that the common point of interest of China and Russia in their opposition to the US research and development of the NMD system no longer exists. The Joint Declaration published by the Chinese and Russian premiers after the seventh regular meeting held in Shanghai on August 23, 2002 indicates that the two countries would cooperate in the field of opposing the weaponization of the outer space.

The Joint Declaration stresses: It is extremely urgent to guarantee non-weaponization of the outer space, and it appeals to the international community to negotiate concluding a related international legal document as soon as possible. This obviously is directed against the US plan of attempting to deploy in the outer space laser intercepting weapons capable of destroying ballistic missiles.

Of course, the forced retreat of the united front of China and Russia from the original stand on opposing the US establishment of a land-based intercepting system to the stand on opposing the establishment of an outer space-based intercepting system has produced some negative influence on China-Russian strategic cooperative relations and the situation regarding China's nuclear security.

Russia-US Contradiction Increases with the Passage of Time
The signing of a series of bilateral treaties and documents between Russia and the United States has further boosted bilateral relations and multi-sphere cooperation, but contradiction between the two countries increases continuously along with the passage of time. There exist important differences between the two countries even on the question of fight against terrorism: In the United Nations, Russia has never agreed with the proposal put forward by the United States that the Security Council automatically authorize the United States to launch war against Iraq; it ignored US restriction on Russia's military and energy cooperation with Iran; Russia keeps vigilance over US troops' long-term stationing in Central Asia; and is greatly annoyed with the entry of US military personnel into Georgia.

Meanwhile, Russia has stepped up its technical preparations, so as to cope with US acts of clearly rejecting actual destruction of nuclear warheads and continued promotion of NMD experiments. On the US part, besides declaring on June 8 that it recognized Russia as a market economy country, it has still not abolished the "Jackson-Vanic amendment" and has not given up its harsh conditions on Russia's WTO entry.

The total volume of Russia-US trade volume was down from US$10 billion in 2000 to US$9 billion in 2001. Besides, the ceremony for the start of the US-directed Caspian Oil westward pipeline (from Azerbaijan to Turkey) was held on September 20, 2002. The diplomatic struggle between Russia and the United States around the Caspian oil problem will unavoidably be deepened.

Concrete Sino-Russia Cooperation Develops Continuously in Various Fields
Besides maintaining their global strategic cooperative relations, cooperation between China and Russia in regional security and bilateral field has also been developing continuously.

After US troops entered and were stationed in Central Asia in early October 2001, China and Russia paid particular attention to strengthening security cooperation in the Central Asian region, and to giving play to the functions of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) which was founded just a year ago.

On May 15, 2002, defense ministers of the five SCO members (defense minister of Uzbekistan was absent) met in Moscow and published a joint communique. At the meeting the ministers decided to establish a joint expert group to discuss questions concerning holding joint anti-terrorist maneuvers.

At the SCO Summit held in St. Petersburg on June 7, not only the SCO Charter was signed, but an anti-terrorist organization under SCO was also established.

On October 10-11, China and Kyrgyzstan held joint anti-terrorist military exercise in the border areas in accordance with the plan drafted in May at the defense ministers conference, this was the joint military exercise held by Chinese troops for the first time with foreign troops, it was also cross-border military exercise held for the first time by Chinese armed forces. This should be understood as the achievement gained by China and Russia in deepening cooperation within the SCO framework.

The economic base of Sino-Russian strategic cooperative partnership has also further consolidated. The sixth regular meting held by premiers of the two countries during Premier Zhu Rongji's visit to Russia in September 2001 has brought Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation to a new stage, the two premiers put particular emphasis on cooperation between large and medium-sized enterprises and cooperation in high-tech fields between the two sides, thereafter, new, rapid development had emerged in the economic and trade cooperation between the two countries.

According to Russia's official statistics, the total bilateral trade volume reached a record US$10.67 billion, up over 30 percent from the previous year. According to the Russian side, plus non-governmental trade, the total trade volume of the two countries had exceeded US$20 billion. Furthermore, more Chinese regions and enterprises had participated in bilateral economic and trade cooperation. Statistics from customs departments show that in the first three quarters of 2002, the total volume of trade between China and Russia increased over 20 percent year-on-year, and the level and quality of bilateral economic and trade cooperation had been greatly improved.

In addition, energy cooperation between China and Russia is an attractive part of the two countries' economic and trade cooperation in the new century. Both sides are stepping up plans for the construction of the project of oil/gas pipeline leading from Russia's Siberia Irkutsk to China's northeast.

In the Joint Communique published after their Shanghai meeting in August 2002, the two premiers had ordered their respective competent organizations to speed up the examination and approval of the project, so that upon approval, the project will proceed to the initial design stage in accordance with the general agreement of feasible study. It is estimated that the project will be started in July 2003 and completed before 2005, with a cooperation period of 25 years. It is planned that oil will be transferred to China in 2005, with an annual amount of 20 million tons, the figure will be raised to 30 million tons a year, beginning from 2010.

It can be said that Sino-Russian strategic cooperative relations with its own logic and motive force has a stable and better future.

By People's Daily Online


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