Illustration: Liu Rui/GT
Questions regarding trade agreements are always a difficult political subject, especially in today's closely linked world economy. While free trade agreements ideally result in lower consumer prices, they can also see the destruction of domestic industry in the face of foreign competition, spurring hostility from labor activists and local politicians alike.
That is one of the reasons why the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has faced such difficulty among Congressional Democrats. Although President Barack Obama sees it as a vital part of improving the US economy, as well as being an important legacy for his administration, he has been unable to convince many in his own party to support the TPP.
Currently, the primary source of conflict over the TPP is the question of whether or not the agreement will be "fast-tracked." Essentially, fast tracking the treaty means that Congress will only be given the right to approve or reject the treaty as a whole, without the ability to add extra amendments to any final agreement. This issue has sparked much of the hostility for the TPP from Congressional Democrats.
Advocates point out that it would be highly difficult to conclude any treaty if the foreign participants had to face continual modifications imposed upon the final treaty by Congress. Adding amendments to the treaty, especially if they materially changed the provisions that had already been agreed upon, would likely see the TPP negotiations collapse. It is probable that some opponents to the TPP, most notably American unions, might attempt to force the inclusion of "poison pill" amendments whose entire purpose would be to force a collapse in the negotiations, leading to the failure of the TPP.
On the other hand, critics of the fast-track provisions have made strong points about the dangers inherent in this procedure. Most notably, the negotiations surrounding the TPP have been marked by a great deal of secrecy, with core components of the agreement being kept from labor representatives, the public, and public interest groups alike. Even Congress has faced severe restrictions on its access to the draft TPP agreement due to the formal classification of documents.
For many, this represents a dishonest attempt to prevent the US people and Congress from being able to have input on an agreement that may have a serious impact on America's businesses and laws. For example, leaked information about the TPP's proposed intellectual property (IP) regulations have been the center of a growing controversy among civil libertarians and Internet advocates.
They are most angered by the fact that these provisions have little to do with trade quotas or tariffs, but rather appear to limit the member nations' ability to change their regulations regarding the handling of IP while remaining in compliance with the TPP. Critics of the TPP argue that such wide-ranging changes to current regulatory standards demand a full and public debate.
Many believe that the secrecy surrounding the TPP is designed to face potential opponents with a fait accompli when they are confronted with the finished agreement. Without any ability to amend the treaty, Congressional Democrats will have the choice of approving a potentially flawed agreement, likely producing a severe backlash from angered voters, or blocking the entire agreement.
That last would be a rebuke of the first degree to Obama, but exposing such deep divides within the Democratic Party, especially in the run up to the 2016 election season, could prove to be quite damaging to the party's electoral success. It is unlikely that congressional Democrats appreciate being faced with such an uncomfortable choice, especially considering that Obama, unlike his congressional allies, does not have to worry about being reelected.
For now, the question of whether or not the TPP will be approved by Congress remains difficult to answer. While the GOP is supportive of the agreement, it will require at least some Democratic votes in order to pass. While many Democrats remain opposed to the bill, there is always the possibility that a compromise or further administration pressure may secure enough votes to pass the TPP.
Regardless, this debate is an important reminder that while most political conflicts in the US are seen in terms of a Republican-Democrat divide, the truth is that internal divisions can be just as destructive to a president's agenda as any opposition on the part of the opposing party. For Obama, relearning this lesson may come at the cost of the treaty that was to be a major legacy of his presidency.
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