Heightened conflicts may lead to further chaos on border: expert

The cease-fire talks between Myanmar's government and ethnic rebel forces, which were supposed to conclude on Sunday, have been extended another day to "address outstanding issues," Myanmar media reported.

Myanmar's Eleven Media quoted Hla Maung Shwe, a negotiator from the Myanmar Peace Center, as saying that Monday's negotiations will "cover chapters 6 and 7 [future tasks and general provisions]" as both sides "finished chapter 5 [pledges for political dialogue] on Sunday."

"We need to finalize negotiations over the signing of the agreement first. We hope it will be completed. The leaders of both sides will have to discuss possible developments that may crop up before the signing," Hla Maung Shwe said.

The seventh round of peace talks began on March 17 in Yangon between the government's Union Peace-Making Work Committee (UPWC) and the ethnic armed groups' Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT) in an effort to finalize the draft nationwide cease-fire accord.

The six-day peace talks focused on eight remaining points of over 100 points left by the previous talks.

Despite hopes that the cease-fire accord would be signed, NCCT member U Salai Lian Hmung warned at a Thursday press conference that it may not be signed during this round as negotiators lack the authority.

"Even if we finalize the draft, we have to submit it to our respective leaders. And then an ethnic armed groups conference will decide," he was quoted as saying by the Myanmar Times.

A separate discussion on conflicts in Kokang was scheduled to start after the current round of talks, according to Xinhua.

"The seventh round of peace talks mainly involved discussions on military affairs. If everything goes smoothly at this new round - unlike previous talks that ended either fruitless or in renewed conflicts - it would indicate a major breakthrough," a Beijing-based expert on Myanmar studies, who requested anonymity, told the Global Times.

"The national cease-fire agreement would be a crucial first step to solving Myanmar's ethnic issues. But the country still needs to establish political dialogue to discuss details, such as the political structure of the ethnic regions," said the expert.

Some remained pessimistic toward the peace talks.

"There has so far been no representative from the Myanmar government or military saying that they support a cease-fire or want to achieve peace in Kokang. On the contrary, we have been seeking to negotiate with the Myanmar government but received no response," a spokesperson for the Kokang rebels, who asked to be identified as Song, told the Global Times.

Song also noted that the talks lack trust as certain powerful rebel group opted out of the peace negotiations.

U Aung Min, vice chairman of the UPWC, quoted Myanmar President U Thein Sein as saying that the nation's conflict "cannot be resolved by use of force but through political dialogue."

U Thein Sein said in an interview with the BBC on Friday that the conflict with rebels is a domestic matter. "China cannot solve it. We have to sort it ourselves," he said.

"The peace process mainly relies on peace talks, but they also require the supervision and participation of the international community. There is no doubt that China has not and will not intervene in the domestic affairs of Myanmar … Conflicts in northern Myanmar drew our attention because they have affected the stability of border areas, a core national interest of China," Xu Liping, a research fellow in Southeast Asian studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times.

Xu added that heightened conflicts could give rise to cross-border gun trafficking and the region could become a base for illegal armed groups, or even separatists.

Meanwhile, heavy fighting continued in Kokang and government forces have reportedly resorted to airstrikes. A Kokang rebel officer told the Global Times that the rebels are fully prepared to "escalate battles" in the face of a main attack from government forces in the coming two days.