In past few days, Russia's ruble has plunged to new lows, with the euro at one point hitting 100 rubles and the U.S. dollar 80 rubles in Moscow trading. To stabilize the economic situation and extricate itself from its current predicament, the Russian Central Bank late Monday unexpectedly increased its key interest rate for the second time in less than a week by 6.5 percentage points to 17 percent. However, the result has been frustrating: the ruble continues to fall. The slump in the ruble and the international oil price is said by some to be a conspiracy of Western countries headed by the U.S. to punish Russia for the latter’s involvement in the Ukraine crisis. Since Russia has been supporting the anti-government forces in eastern Ukraine, Western countries have implemented economic sanctions on Russia. This is why so many people believe that the ruble crisis is being manipulated by western counties.

Apparently, Western countries are delighted to see Russia's predicament, but it doesn’t follow that the predicament is a Western conspiracy. The fall in the oil price has not only made a dent in Russian revenues, it has also undermined the US shale oil industry because it is making the shale oil indutry uncompetitive. The U.S. has little to gain from this.

Sanctions implemented by Western counties on Russia are making it impossible for Russian companies and banks to raise money in western capital markets. To make things worse, Russia's central banks and its big enterprises are burdened with huge debt. The plummeting oil price is giving rise to fears that Russia will default on its debt.

Russia relies too much on energy exports, an old problem existing since the era of the Soviet Union. Instead of being addressed, the problem has been getting worse. Russian energy exports accounted for 67.7 percent of its export volume in 2007, much higher than the 40 percent they represented in 1994. In a modern economy revolving around technology and knowledge, Russia's economic structure is out of date.

Russian president Vladimir Putin has unveiled a set of benefits , which entails a large sum of money. Only when the international oil price exceeds 110 US dollars does Russia maintain fiscal balance. So it is not hard to imagine what rough times Russia is going through with the oil price sitting at just 50 US dollars. As a result, Russia is having to devalue its currency in an attempt to limit the massive risk of inflation.

This article was edited and translated from 《卢布危机，“阴谋论”靠谱吗？》, source: The Beijing News, Author: Zhao Lingmin